EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens below 1.1150, bearish bias intact below key moving averages
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at around 1.1120, having seen a breakdown below 1.1150, reinforcing a bearish technical narrative. This decline not only aligns with the prevailing USD bullish sentiment but also sets the stage for potential further strength in the dollar if the Federal Reserve's guidance maintains a restrictive tone post-meeting. Market participants are advised to remain cautious as they await the Fed's interest rate decision today, which could significantly impact the pair's trajectory.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1500 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and BoFA at the lower (1.1200). [fxstreet.com's] view suggests continued bearish bias as it closely aligns with the market's current sentiment leading into the Fed meeting.
How firms align
Notably, firms like HSBC and BofA hold bearish positions with targets of 1.1000 and 1.1200 respectively. On the contrary, Commerzbank and RBC project higher targets at 1.2000 and 1.1700, indicating a divergence from the bearish framework suggested by the recent performance in EUR/USD. See our reports on HSBC and BofA for detailed analysis.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions highlight a notable downward adjustment from Standard Chartered (1.1400) and Danske Bank (1.1866), which align with the bearish outlook while the ECB rate decision preview indicates market uncertainty influencing these target adjustments. See /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-10-29 for further insights.
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD breaks below 1.1150, signaling continued bearish momentum.
- 02Maintain a close watch on Fed's decision today for directional cues.
- 03Risk of further USD strength looms if Fed guidance persists on rate hikes.
- 04Bearish sentiment is shared across several firms post-technical breakdown.
Market implications
Key levels to focus on include the immediate resistance at 1.1150, which needs to hold for further bearish sentiment to remain valid. The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting today could provide significant volatility and directional clarity for the pair, impacting our consensus target of 1.1500.
Risks to this view
A shift in sentiment from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates could invalidate the current bearish view. Specifically, if the Fed signals a softer policy stance or hints at rate cuts sooner than expected, EUR/USD may experience a sharp reversal.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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