On this page · 4 sections▾
AUD/USD spot of 0.70585 sits within rounding distance of the full AUD/USD bank forecast table cross-firm median of 0.7075 for December 2026, but the 0.10 gap between the most bullish and most bearish desks across 25 contributors signals that the apparent consensus masks a genuine policy and macro divide.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 13, 2026): 0.70585
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 25 firms): 0.7075
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10 (widest in the G10 commodity bloc)
- Gap vs spot: −0.23% — spot is in line with consensus
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75 (+6.3% from spot)
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65 (−7.9% from spot)
Firm Forecasts vs Spot
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | 0.65 | bearish |
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.7075 | neutral |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| Westpac | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What Does the RBA-Fed Rate Gap Price Into AUD/USD?
The central fault line in the 25-firm panel is the trajectory of the RBA-Fed differential through year-end. The majority of bullish desks — Deutsche Bank, UBS, Nomura, Société Générale — price a scenario in which the Fed cuts faster or deeper than the RBA through H2 2026, compressing the negative carry that has capped AUD/USD for much of the post-pandemic cycle. SG is notable: its target was raised from 0.6700 to 0.7120, a 450-pip revision that reflects a reassessment of RBA stickiness rather than any fresh China optimism.
Citi sits at the opposite end, targeting 0.6700 from a spot reference of 0.7200 at the time of its last publication — implying roughly 6.9% downside. Citi's framework prices a Fed that remains on hold longer than the market discounts, keeping the rate differential adverse for AUD, while flagging that domestic Australian consumption data has not validated the RBA's cautiously hawkish posture. Mizuho, the panel's floor at 0.6500, layers in a more severe China slowdown scenario on top of that rate view.
Scotiabank holds the ceiling at 0.7500 but carries a neutral stance label — a combination that reflects conviction on the level but agnosticism about timing. BNS's published note references a spot of 0.7191 at time of writing, implying roughly 4.3% further appreciation; the neutral tag suggests the desk sees the path as non-linear rather than directionally clean.
Where Is Dispersion Widest — and Why Does China Matter?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · JPMorgan · BNP Paribas +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-13 16:07 UTC
The 0.10 max-min spread is the most consequential data point in this week's snapshot. A spread of that magnitude across 25 desks is not noise; it reflects structurally different assumptions about two variables that are difficult to forecast with precision: the pace of Fed easing and the trajectory of Chinese fixed-asset investment.
AUD/USD carries a well-documented beta to iron-ore prices, which in turn track Chinese steel demand and property-sector activity. Desks with 0.72–0.73 targets — Rabobank, Westpac, ING — appear to price a muddle-through China scenario: stimulus sufficient to stabilise iron-ore in the mid-to-high USD 90s per tonne but not a demand surge. Bank of America and MUFG, both at 0.7000, are technically bullish on the pair but target a level below the current median — a posture that reflects commodity-price caution even as they expect some Fed easing to provide a floor.
The bearish outliers — Citi at 0.6700, Mizuho at 0.6500 — are not simply dollar-bull calls. Both embed a view that Chinese demand disappoints relative to current consensus, removing the commodity-income support that has historically kept AUD/USD from sustained sub-0.65 prints outside of acute risk-off episodes. If iron-ore slips toward USD 80/t, the commodity beta alone could validate those targets without any additional Fed hawkishness.
No fresh macro data crossed the tape for this pair in the seven days ending August 13, leaving positioning and rate-spread dynamics as the dominant short-term drivers. The pair's proximity to the median — a mere −0.23% gap — means the market is not currently pricing a strong directional view, consistent with the panel's formally neutral implied bias.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 25 contributing desks is 0.7075, roughly 0.23% above spot of 0.70585 as of August 13, 2026.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD target?
Scotiabank holds the panel ceiling at 0.7500, implying approximately 6.3% upside from current spot levels.
Which bank is most bearish on AUD/USD?
Mizuho carries the floor target of 0.6500, reflecting a combination of a persistent Fed-RBA rate differential adverse to AUD and a below-consensus China demand outlook.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters on AUD/USD?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 25 firms — stands at 0.10, a level that reflects genuine divergence on both the RBA-Fed policy gap and the China commodity demand trajectory rather than minor modelling differences.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's highest AUD/USD target of 0.7500 and how BNS frames the RBA policy path through year-end.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Westpac →
Bank Forecast
Tmgm →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7085, Week of August 15, 2026
AUD/USD spot of 0.7085 sits within 0.15% of the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.7075, masking a 0.10-figure dispersion between Scotiabank and Mizuho.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7085, Week of August 14, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7085, within 0.15% of the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.7075, but a 0.10 range separates the most bullish and bearish desks.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: 0.7075 Target, 0.10 Spread — Week of Aug 12, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7068, within a tenth of a percent of the 25-firm Dec-26 median target of 0.7075, masking a 0.10 range between Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case and Mizuho's 0.65 floor.
Share