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AUD/USD spot sits at 0.7085 as of the week of August 18, 2026 — effectively at the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.7075, per the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. Across 25 contributing desks, the gap between the most bullish and most bearish year-end calls spans 0.10 figures, a spread that reflects genuine disagreement on three interlocking variables: the RBA-Fed rate differential, the trajectory of Chinese demand, and commodity-price beta.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 18, 2026): 0.7085
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 target (25 firms): 0.7075
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs consensus: 0.14% — spot in line with consensus
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.7075 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Westpac | 0.72 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What does the RBA-Fed policy gap imply for AUD/USD into year-end?
The central tension in AUD/USD forecasting through December 2026 is the relative pace of easing between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. The majority of the 25 desks in this consensus lean bullish or neutral on the pair, which implies a view that the Fed cuts faster or deeper than the RBA — or that the RBA holds longer, preserving the carry advantage that has historically underpinned AUD demand from real-money accounts.
Goldman Sachs targets 0.70, a bullish stance relative to its reference spot, pricing a moderate narrowing of the rate differential in Australia's favour. Deutsche Bank and Nomura both sit at 0.72 with bullish stances, consistent with a view that the RBA's residual hawkishness — relative to a Fed that has been under pressure to ease amid slowing US growth — keeps the spread supportive. Commerzbank is the most aggressive in this camp at 0.71, having marked its reference spot at 0.66, implying a 7.6% appreciation call — the largest percentage move of any desk with a published narrative in this set.
Citi dissents sharply. Its 0.67 target — the lowest among the named desks — reflects a bearish read that combines a more resilient US rate structure with skepticism about Australia's domestic demand. Citi's reference spot of 0.72 makes this a roughly 6.9% depreciation call, the starkest directional divergence in the table.
Where is dispersion widest, and what does it reveal about China and commodity risk?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · JPMorgan · BNP Paribas +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-18 21:07 UTC
The 0.10 figure spread between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Mizuho's 0.65 floor is not noise — it maps directly onto uncertainty about two variables that no rate model fully captures: Chinese industrial demand and the iron-ore price.
Australia's export revenue remains heavily concentrated in iron ore and metallurgical coal, both of which are sensitive to Chinese steel output and property-sector activity. When Chinese PMI data disappoints or property-sector stress re-emerges, AUD/USD historically underperforms its rate-differential implied level by a meaningful margin. Desks with targets at or above 0.72 — UBS, ING, Scotiabank, Westpac — are implicitly pricing a stabilisation or modest recovery in Chinese demand through H2 2026. Scotiabank's 0.75 target, the highest in the consensus, requires both a favourable rate dynamic and a commodity-price backdrop that supports Australian terms of trade.
TMGM at 0.69 neutral sits in the middle of the distribution but below the 0.7075 median, suggesting a more cautious read on China's ability to deliver the stimulus follow-through that commodity markets have periodically priced and then unwound. The neutral stance there is consistent with a desk that sees risks balanced but skewed toward disappointment on the China growth channel.
No fresh macro data crossed the tape in the seven days to August 18 to materially shift these positioning anchors. The consensus, as a result, remains tightly clustered around spot — a 0.14% gap is statistically negligible — which itself signals that the market is in a holding pattern pending the next RBA decision and Chinese activity data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 25 contributing desks is 0.7075, compared with a live spot of 0.7085 as of August 18, 2026 — a gap of 0.14%.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD target and which has the lowest?
Scotiabank holds the most bullish year-end target at 0.75; Mizuho anchors the bearish end at 0.65, producing a max-to-min dispersion of 0.10 across the full 25-firm set.
Is the broader AUD/USD consensus bullish or bearish?
The implied consensus bias is neutral. Spot is in line with the median target, and while the majority of named desks carry bullish stances, the distribution of targets clusters tightly enough around current levels that no directional conviction is evident at the aggregate level.
What is the biggest risk to AUD/USD forecasts through year-end?
Dispersion of 0.10 between the top and bottom targets reflects genuine uncertainty on Chinese demand and the RBA-Fed rate gap — either variable shifting materially would likely force target revisions across multiple desks simultaneously.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the rationale behind the consensus-high 0.75 Dec-26 AUD/USD target.
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Commerzbank →
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Bank of America →
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