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AUD/USD spot at 0.7118 sits within a quarter-percent of the full AUD/USD bank forecast table Dec-26 median of 0.71, yet the 0.10 dispersion across 25 contributing desks — from Scotiabank at 0.75 to Citi at 0.65 — reflects genuine disagreement on the RBA-Fed rate gap, China's demand trajectory, and the durability of iron-ore's recent floor.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 20, 2026): 0.7118
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (25 firms): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.25% — spot is in line with consensus
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.715 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Westpac | 0.72 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What Is the RBA-Fed Rate Gap Pricing Into AUD/USD?
The dominant structural variable for AUD/USD through year-end is the relative policy path between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. The majority of desks in the 25-firm panel lean bullish on the pair, reflecting an expectation that the Fed moves toward easing faster or deeper than the RBA, narrowing the rate differential that has weighed on AUD since 2023.
Deutsche Bank at 0.72 and UBS at 0.73 sit in the upper tier of the bullish camp, both implying the RBA holds rates sufficiently long to sustain carry appeal while the Fed cuts. Goldman Sachs targets 0.70 — bullish in stance but below spot — suggesting the desk sees near-term AUD softness before a Fed-driven recovery into year-end. J.P. Morgan at 0.68 presents the same paradox: a bullish label against a target that implies a 4% decline from current spot, pointing to a view that the pair first reprices lower on China demand risk before any Fed pivot provides relief.
Citi is the lone explicitly bearish desk in the published subset, targeting 0.67 — a 5.9% decline from spot. The Citi view prices a more aggressive Fed hold than consensus assumes, combined with deteriorating terms of trade for Australia if Chinese steel demand disappoints.
How Much Does China and Iron Ore Beta Matter to the Dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · BNP Paribas · JPMorgan +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-20 16:07 UTC
The 0.10 spread between top and bottom targets is among the wider ranges in the G10 consensus at this point in the year, and commodity beta is a primary source of that disagreement. AUD/USD carries a well-documented correlation to iron-ore prices, which in turn track Chinese property and infrastructure activity. Desks with constructive China views — or those willing to look through near-term weakness — cluster in the 0.72–0.75 range. Those pricing a sustained Chinese demand shortfall anchor near 0.67–0.69.
Scotiabank at 0.75 is the highest target in the full 25-firm panel, a neutral-stance call that implies the desk is not making a directional bet so much as marking fair value higher on commodity terms of trade. ING at 0.73 and Westpac at 0.72 — both neutral — similarly reflect a commodity-beta repricing thesis without committing to a momentum view. Rabobank at 0.72 neutral echoes that framing.
The bearish and low-target desks are effectively pricing a scenario where iron-ore fails to sustain above key support levels, Chinese fixed-asset investment data continues to disappoint, and the RBA is forced into a more dovish pivot than currently signaled — compressing the rate spread and the commodity premium simultaneously.
UOB sits closest to current spot at 0.715, having recently revised its target up from 0.7075, a small but directionally meaningful upgrade that reflects marginally improved near-term commodity and China sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD bank consensus for December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 25 contributing desks is 0.71, essentially in line with the Aug 20, 2026 spot of 0.7118, implying a consensus bias of neutral.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on AUD/USD?
Dispersion — the gap between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets — stands at 0.10, running from Mizuho at 0.65 to Scotiabank at 0.75, one of the wider spreads in the current G10 consensus.
Which bank is most bullish on AUD/USD and what does it target?
Scotiabank carries the highest Dec-26 target in the panel at 0.75, implying roughly 5.4% upside from current spot, driven by a commodity terms-of-trade and rate-gap framework.
Which bank is most bearish on AUD/USD?
Mizuho holds the lowest target at 0.65, implying approximately 8.7% downside from spot — a view that prices sustained Fed hold, RBA dovish pivot risk, and weak Chinese commodity demand through year-end.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the top-target desk's rate-spread and commodity assumptions underpinning the 0.75 call.
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