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AUD/USD spot at 0.7171 sits roughly 1% above the full AUD/USD bank forecast table Dec-26 median of 0.71 compiled across 25 desks, with a max-to-min dispersion of 0.10 — unusually wide for a G10 major and a signal that the macro inputs driving this pair remain genuinely contested.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 23, 2026): 0.7171
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.99% (spot well above median)
- Most-bullish firm: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most-bearish firm: Mizuho at 0.65
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.715 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Westpac | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
Why is AUD/USD trading above the Dec-26 consensus median?
The 0.99% premium spot carries over the 0.71 median reflects a market that has front-run a more benign macro outcome than the median desk prices. Three channels are doing the heavy lifting.
First, the RBA-Fed rate-spread regime. The RBA has moved more cautiously than the Fed on the easing cycle, leaving the cash-rate differential less punishing to AUD than it was through 2024-25. Desks pricing targets in the 0.70-0.72 range — Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank — broadly assume the Fed delivers 75-100 bps of additional cuts by year-end while the RBA trails with 25-50 bps, compressing the negative AUD carry but not eliminating it. That residual carry drag is why even bullish desks cluster below current spot.
Second, China's growth trajectory feeds directly into the commodity-beta story. Iron ore remains the single largest variable in AUD's terms-of-trade sensitivity; a sustained move above $100/t tends to add roughly 1-2 big figures to fair-value estimates on AUD/USD. Desks at the bullish end of the distribution — UBS at 0.73, Scotiabank at 0.75 — appear to embed a more constructive view on Chinese fixed-asset investment and steel demand than the median. The bearish tail, anchored by Mizuho at 0.65 and Citi at 0.67, prices a sharper Chinese slowdown and a correspondingly weaker commodity complex.
Third, positioning. When spot runs above a consensus that is itself framed as bearish, the path of least resistance is mean-reversion — but the timing depends on which catalyst resolves the China and Fed uncertainty first.
Where is the dispersion widest, and which desks are the outliers?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · BNP Paribas · JPMorgan +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-23 06:04 UTC
At 0.10 max-to-min, the spread across the 25-firm panel is the defining feature of this week's read. The interquartile range is tighter — most desks sit between 0.70 and 0.73 — but the tails are meaningful.
Scotiabank at 0.75 is the top target and carries a neutral stance, which is a notable combination: the desk is not expressing high conviction on direction from current spot but has set a year-end level that implies roughly 4.6% upside from 0.7171. The neutral stance likely reflects uncertainty about the path rather than the destination.
At the other extreme, Citi at 0.67 is the only desk in the visible panel with an explicit bearish stance on AUD/USD itself. A 0.67 target implies roughly 6.5% downside from spot — a call that requires either a meaningful Fed pivot reversal, a commodity-price shock, or a Chinese growth disappointment materially worse than consensus.
J.P. Morgan at 0.68 with a bullish stance presents the most internally complex read: the target is the second-lowest in the visible panel yet the stance is bullish, suggesting the desk sees AUD/USD rising from its assumed entry level even if the Dec-26 destination is below current spot. The implied base was around 0.64 when the forecast was set, making the 0.68 target a meaningful percentage gain from that reference.
Bank of America and MUFG share a 0.70 target with bullish stances, both anchored to a 0.64 spot reference — a reminder that forecast vintage matters when reading the table. Desks that set targets against a significantly lower spot may be expressing less upside conviction than the raw target implies relative to today's 0.7171.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD bank forecast consensus for December 2026?
The cross-firm median across 25 desks is 0.71 for Dec-26. Spot at 0.7171 sits approximately 0.99% above that level as of the week of August 23, 2026.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD target right now?
Scotiabank holds the top target at 0.75, implying roughly 4.6% upside from current spot. The firm carries a neutral stance on the pair.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
Dispersion from the most-bullish to most-bearish Dec-26 target is 0.10 — Scotiabank at 0.75 versus Mizuho at 0.65. That range is wide relative to typical G10 consensus spreads and reflects genuine uncertainty across the RBA-Fed spread, China demand, and commodity-price trajectories.
Is the overall bank consensus bullish or bearish on AUD/USD?
The implied consensus bias is bearish: the 25-firm median of 0.71 sits below current spot of 0.7171, meaning the average desk expects AUD/USD to drift lower by year-end even though a majority of the visible panel carries a bullish directional stance from their respective entry references.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the assumptions behind the panel's top AUD/USD target of 0.75.
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