On this page · 3 sections▾
AUD/USD spot at 0.7197 sits 1.37% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 0.71, per the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. Across 25 contributing desks, the range runs from 0.65 to 0.75 — a 10-cent spread that reflects genuine disagreement on the RBA-Fed rate differential, China's demand trajectory, and commodity-price sustainability.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 27, 2026): 0.7197
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10 (range: 0.65–0.75)
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +1.37% (spot well above median)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.72 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
Why is AUD/USD trading above the consensus median?
The pair's 1.37% premium to the Dec-26 median is not large in absolute terms, but it is meaningful given the implied consensus bias is bearish — the majority of the 25-firm panel expects the pair to drift lower from current levels by year-end. The tension is structural: spot has been supported by a combination of a softer Fed tone and resilient Australian export receipts, while the forward consensus embeds a view that neither dynamic is durable.
The RBA-Fed rate-spread regime is central here. Desks with targets clustered between 0.70 and 0.72 — the modal band — are broadly pricing a world where the Fed holds rates restrictive into late 2026 while the RBA has already completed its easing cycle or is close to doing so. That configuration narrows the yield advantage Australia enjoyed in 2024-25 and removes one of the pair's cleaner carry supports. Morgan Stanley, targeting 0.71 with a bullish stance, exemplifies this middle-ground view: AUD recovers modestly on a weaker dollar but the rate spread offers limited additional lift. Goldman Sachs and MUFG, both at 0.70, price a similar spread regime but with less dollar softness baked in.
China's growth profile adds a second layer of uncertainty. Iron-ore demand from Chinese steel mills remains the most direct commodity-beta channel for AUD, and the desk range on China's H2 2026 activity is wide. Desks with higher targets implicitly assume Chinese stimulus measures translate into sustained ore demand; those anchored at 0.70 or below treat any stimulus as front-loaded and fading.
Where is the dispersion widest, and what does it signal?
At 10 cents peak-to-trough, the forecast spread is among the widest for a G10 major at this horizon. Scotiabank at 0.75 and Mizuho at 0.65 bracket a range that effectively prices two different macro regimes, not just different magnitudes of the same outcome.
Citi at 0.67 — the lowest target among the 14 most recently updated desks — carries a bearish stance and prices a scenario where Fed cuts are delayed further, China's property sector drag re-intensifies, and iron-ore slides back toward cycle lows. That combination would erode both the rate-spread and commodity-beta supports simultaneously. Citi's full forecast detail outlines the conditions under which that path materialises.
At the other end, Scotiabank at 0.75 with a neutral stance is not expressing a directional conviction so much as pricing a risk-on, commodity-positive scenario where Chinese infrastructure spending surprises to the upside and the Fed pivots earlier than the base case. UBS at 0.73 with a bullish stance occupies similar territory but with more explicit directional conviction.
J.P. Morgan at 0.68 with a bullish stance is the most internally nuanced position in the table: the desk sees AUD rising from its assumed spot entry but still finishing the year meaningfully below current levels, implying the desk's spot reference was set at a lower level than today's 0.7197. That gap between entry assumption and current spot is a reminder that published targets are point-in-time snapshots, not rolling updates.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD spot rate and consensus target?
As of August 27, 2026, AUD/USD spot is 0.7197. The 25-firm cross-desk median Dec-26 target is 0.71, implying the pair is trading 1.37% above where consensus expects it to finish the year.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast for December 2026?
Scotiabank holds the highest published target at 0.75, reflecting a scenario of sustained Chinese commodity demand and an earlier-than-consensus Fed pivot.
Which bank is most bearish on AUD/USD?
Mizuho carries the lowest Dec-26 target at 0.65, a 6.9% discount to current spot. Among the 14 most recently updated desks, Citi at 0.67 with an explicit bearish stance is the most negative.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
The peak-to-trough dispersion across all 25 firms is 0.10 — 10 cents — between Mizuho's 0.65 floor and Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling. That spread reflects fundamentally different assumptions on the RBA-Fed differential, China's H2 growth, and iron-ore price trajectories rather than minor calibration differences.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the commodity and China assumptions underpinning the 0.75 target, the highest in the 25-firm AUD/USD consensus panel.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD at 0.7167: Consensus Targets 0.71, Dispersion Spans 10 Cents
Spot AUD/USD sits 0.95% above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.71, with a 10-cent spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case from Mizuho's 0.65 floor.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7164 vs 0.71 Median, Week of Aug 25 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7164, roughly 0.90% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with a 10-cent spread separating the most and least bullish desks.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7150 vs 0.71 Median, Week of Aug 24 2026
AUD/USD trades 0.71% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with a 0.10 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case from Mizuho's 0.65 floor.
Share