On this page · 3 sections▾
AUD/USD spot sits at 0.71646 as of the week of August 28, 2026 — marginally above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 0.71, per the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. The dispersion across the panel is 0.10 figure, the widest it has been in several quarters, reflecting genuine disagreement on the RBA-Fed rate path, Chinese demand, and commodity-price trajectory.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 28, 2026): 0.71646
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min, 25 firms): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.91% — spot is well above median
- Most-bullish firm: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most-bearish firm: Mizuho at 0.65
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.72 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
Why does AUD/USD trade above the consensus median?
The 0.91% premium spot carries over the 0.71 median is not noise — it reflects a rate-spread regime that has shifted more slowly than most desks anticipated at the start of the year. The RBA held rates longer than the Fed, compressing the negative carry that weighed on AUD through much of 2024-25. As the Fed's easing cycle deepened, the two-year rate differential narrowed, removing the structural headwind that anchored most Dec-26 targets below current spot.
Iron ore is the second variable. Spot prices for 62% Fe fines have stabilised above levels that the more bearish desks — Citi at 0.67, J.P. Morgan at 0.68 — embedded in their models. China's property sector has not recovered cleanly, but infrastructure stimulus has provided a floor under steel demand that keeps Australia's export revenue from deteriorating as sharply as the bear case required. AUD's commodity beta remains high; any sustained iron-ore move above consensus carries spot with it.
The consensus bias is formally bearish — the median target of 0.71 sits below spot — but the distribution of stances tells a more nuanced story. Of the 14 most recently updated desks, the majority carry a bullish stance on AUD/USD itself, meaning they expect the pair to rise from their own reference spot at the time of publication. The apparent contradiction arises because several bullish desks set their reference spot well below current levels: Morgan Stanley anchored its 0.71 target against a 0.64 spot, implying roughly 10.9% appreciation from that entry point, yet the target now sits fractionally below current trading levels.
Which desks are the outliers, and what rate-spread regime do they price?
Each firm's Q4 2026 AUD/USD target back-solved to an implied US − AU 10y spread via covered-interest-parity. Anchored at the observed 10y rates on 2026-08-28.
Source: Tmgm · Standard Chartered · RBC · ING +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-28 16:03 UTC
The 0.10 dispersion — from Mizuho's 0.65 floor to Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling — is the widest in the 25-firm panel. That spread is almost entirely explained by disagreement on two variables: the pace of residual Fed cuts into year-end, and the durability of Chinese industrial demand.
Scotiabank at 0.75 is the most constructive desk. A neutral stance paired with the highest target implies the desk sees current spot as fairly valued but the path of least resistance as higher, contingent on commodity support and a Fed that delivers additional cuts. The 0.75 target prices a rate-spread regime in which the RBA-Fed differential continues to compress in AUD's favour — either through faster Fed easing or a slower RBA cutting cycle than the market currently prices.
At the other end, Citi at 0.67 is the only desk with an explicit bearish stance on AUD/USD in the published 14. The 0.67 target embeds a scenario where China's stimulus underwhelms, iron ore retreats, and the Fed pauses its easing cycle — restoring negative carry against AUD. J.P. Morgan at 0.68 carries a bullish stance despite a low absolute target, suggesting the desk's reference spot was materially lower at the time of publication and the 0.68 level represented meaningful upside from that anchor.
The cluster between 0.70 and 0.73 — where Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, UBS, ING, and Bank of America sit — represents the modal view: AUD/USD drifts modestly lower or holds near current levels by December, with commodity beta providing support but not enough to push materially through 0.73.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD spot rate as of August 28, 2026?
AUD/USD is trading at 0.71646 as of the week of August 28, 2026, placing spot 0.91% above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 0.71.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast for December 2026?
Scotiabank holds the highest published target in the 25-firm panel at 0.75, against a floor of 0.65 from Mizuho — a spread of 0.10 across the full consensus.
Is the overall bank consensus bullish or bearish on AUD/USD?
The implied consensus bias is bearish: the Dec-26 median of 0.71 sits below current spot of 0.71646, meaning the central tendency of the panel points to a modest decline by year-end.
How many banks are tracked in the AUD/USD consensus?
The consensus is drawn from 25 firms. The 14 most recently updated desks are shown in the table above; snapshot statistics — median, dispersion, top and bottom targets — are computed across the full 25-firm set.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the rationale behind the panel's most constructive AUD/USD target at 0.75.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Continue tracking AUD/USD
More from AUD/USD
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7171, Median Target 0.71 — Week of September 1, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7171, roughly 1% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.71, with a 0.10 spread separating StanChart's 0.75 bull case from Mizuho's 0.65 bear.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7165, Median Target 0.71 — Week of August 31, 2026
AUD/USD trades 0.92% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with a 0.10 spread between Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case and Mizuho's 0.65 floor.
- AUD/USD
AUD/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 0.7162, Week of August 30, 2026
AUD/USD trades at 0.7162, 0.88% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with a 10-cent dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the RBA-Fed gap.
Share