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AUD/USD spot sits at 0.70244 as of the week of September 27, 2026 — 1.06% below the cross-firm median December 2026 target of 0.71, according to the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. Across 24 contributing desks, the gap between the most bullish and most bearish year-end call spans 0.08 figures, a dispersion level that reflects genuine disagreement on the three variables that drive this pair: the RBA–Fed rate spread, Chinese growth momentum, and commodity beta through iron ore.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 27, 2026): 0.70244
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 target (24 firms): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.08
- Gap vs consensus: −1.06% (spot well below median)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Citi at 0.67
Where Do the 24 Desks Stand on AUD/USD?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| BNP Paribas | 0.68 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.712 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| Crédit Agricole | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
| Standard Chartered | 0.75 | bullish |
What Is the RBA–Fed Spread Pricing Into AUD/USD?
The policy-rate differential is the primary axis of disagreement among the 24 desks. Desks with targets clustered around 0.70–0.71 — Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and MUFG — are effectively pricing a spread regime in which the Fed holds restrictive for longer than the RBA can sustain, compressing the rate advantage that historically underpins AUD carry. Their targets sit at or fractionally above current spot, implying the pair is close to fair value under that rate path and that any AUD appreciation is capped by the Fed's reluctance to ease aggressively.
At the other end, Standard Chartered and Scotiabank both publish 0.75 targets — 6.8% above spot — a level that requires either a meaningful Fed pivot, an RBA that holds rates higher than the strip implies, or a material re-rating of China risk appetite. Deutsche Bank at 0.72 and UBS at 0.73 occupy the middle ground, pricing a gradual narrowing of the rate gap without assuming an abrupt Fed capitulation. BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan are the structural outliers at 0.68 — both flag bullish stances on the pair yet carry the lowest absolute targets, a combination that reflects a view that the pair has further to fall before a Q4 recovery materialises.
How Much Does China and Iron Ore Beta Explain the Dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Citi · BNP Paribas · JPMorgan · Tmgm +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-27 06:05 UTC
The 0.08 dispersion band — running from Citi's 0.67 floor to Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling — is not explained by rate differentials alone. AUD/USD carries a well-documented commodity beta, particularly to iron ore, and the range of China growth assumptions feeding into Q4 2026 outlooks is wide. Desks anchored to a subdued Chinese property and infrastructure cycle — consistent with iron ore prices that have underperformed prior commodity cycles — tend to cluster below 0.71. Desks that price a policy-driven Chinese demand recovery, whether through fiscal stimulus or credit easing, tend to sit at 0.72 and above.
Société Générale at 0.712 and UOB at 0.712 both carry neutral-to-cautious China assumptions, landing near the consensus median. Crédit Agricole at 0.73 reflects a more constructive read on Chinese industrial demand feeding through to Australian export revenues. The commodity channel also interacts with the rate story: a stronger iron ore price improves Australia's terms of trade, reduces the current account drag, and gives the RBA more room to hold — all of which tighten the spread in AUD's favour without requiring the Fed to move first.
No fresh macro catalysts crossed the tape in the seven days to September 27, leaving spot at 0.70244 with the consensus bias intact but untested by new data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median target across 24 contributing desks is 0.71, implying roughly 1.06% upside from the September 27, 2026 spot of 0.70244.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD target?
Scotiabank carries the top target at 0.75, representing approximately 6.8% above current spot; Standard Chartered matches that level with a bullish stance.
Which bank has the lowest AUD/USD target?
Citi holds the most bearish year-end view at 0.67, roughly 3.9% below current spot and 0.08 figures below Scotiabank — the widest dispersion point in the 24-firm panel.
Why do some desks show bullish stances but low absolute targets?
J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas both carry 0.68 targets with bullish stances, indicating they expect AUD/USD to trade lower near-term before recovering — the stance reflects the directional bias from their assumed entry point, not from current spot.
→ See the full Standard Chartered FX outlook for the desk's detailed rationale behind the 0.75 December target, including its China demand and RBA rate-path assumptions.
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