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AUD/USD spot settled at 0.7019 as of September 28, 2026 — 1.14% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.71 drawn from the full AUD/USD bank forecast table. Across 24 contributing desks, the high-low dispersion spans 0.08 full figures, one of the wider readings in the G10 consensus this quarter.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 28, 2026): 0.7019
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min, 24 firms): 0.08
- Gap vs consensus: −1.14% (spot trades below)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Citi at 0.67
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| BNP Paribas | 0.68 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.712 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| Crédit Agricole | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Standard Chartered | 0.75 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
What Is the RBA–Fed Policy Gap Pricing Into AUD/USD?
The dominant structural driver for most desks is the interest-rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve. The majority of the 24-firm panel is positioned for a narrowing of that spread in AUD's favour — either through Fed cuts outpacing RBA easing, or through the RBA holding longer than the market currently prices. That dynamic underpins the broadly bullish tilt in the consensus: 14 of the 14 firms shown in the table carry either a bullish or neutral stance, with only Citi registering an outright bearish read.
J.P. Morgan sits at 0.68 with a bullish stance — a combination that reflects a starting-point assumption of a weaker spot base rather than a pessimistic terminal view. The desk prices a meaningful Fed easing cycle delivering roughly 6.3% AUD appreciation from its assumed spot entry. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America share the 0.70 target, both bullish, and both appear to embed a scenario where the Fed moves more aggressively than the RBA through Q4 2026, compressing the rate spread that has weighed on AUD through much of the year.
At the hawkish-AUD end, UBS at 0.73 and Standard Chartered at 0.75 price a more complete repricing of the differential — consistent with a scenario where Australian policy rates remain elevated relative to a Fed that has already delivered several cuts.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Drives the Citi–Scotiabank Gap?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Citi · BNP Paribas · JPMorgan · Tmgm +20 more
24 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-28 16:07 UTC
The 0.08 figure separating the top target (Scotiabank, 0.75) from the bottom (Citi, 0.67) is the key structural tension in this consensus. That gap is not simply a disagreement about Fed timing — it reflects fundamentally different assumptions about China's demand trajectory and the commodity beta embedded in AUD.
Citi at 0.67 is the sole outright bearish desk in the visible panel. Its narrative prices a deterioration in Chinese growth momentum that would compress iron ore and bulk commodity prices, removing one of AUD's most reliable supports. With China's property sector still a drag on steel demand, and iron ore prices sensitive to any sequential slowdown in infrastructure spending, Citi's bearish case is internally consistent — even if it sits well outside the consensus range.
Scotiabank at 0.75 takes the opposite view on the commodity complex, implicitly pricing a stabilisation or modest recovery in Chinese activity sufficient to keep bulk commodity prices supported. The desk carries a neutral stance despite the highest target in the panel, suggesting the call is more about structural fair value than a near-term directional trade.
Crédit Agricole at 0.73 and Deutsche Bank at 0.72 occupy the upper-middle of the distribution, both pricing a constructive but not aggressive commodity and rate-spread outcome. The cluster between 0.70 and 0.73 — where the bulk of the 24-firm panel sits — reflects a base case of moderate Fed easing, stable Chinese demand, and an RBA that completes a shallow cutting cycle without materially undermining the carry advantage.
Spot at 0.7019 currently trades below even the more conservative targets in that cluster, which is why the implied consensus bias reads as bullish. The 1.14% gap to the median is not large in absolute terms, but it is directionally unambiguous: the panel as a whole expects AUD/USD to close the year above current levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD rate and where is consensus?
As of September 28, 2026, AUD/USD spot is 0.7019. The median Dec-26 target across 24 contributing banks is 0.71, leaving spot approximately 1.14% below consensus.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast?
Scotiabank holds the top target at 0.75 for December 2026, implying roughly 6.8% upside from current spot levels.
Which bank is most bearish on AUD/USD?
Citi carries the lowest target at 0.67, the only outright bearish call in the visible panel, implying approximately 4.6% downside from spot.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion across all 24 firms measures 0.08 figures — the difference between Scotiabank's 0.75 ceiling and Citi's 0.67 floor — reflecting genuine disagreement on China's commodity demand outlook and the pace of Fed easing.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's highest AUD/USD target heading into year-end.
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