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USD/KRW trades at 1393.87, roughly 1.01% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1380 — a modest but directionally meaningful gap that the full USD/KRW bank forecast table shows is framed against a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks. The Bank of Korea's August 27 decision arrives into a consensus that is overwhelmingly bearish on the pair, yet spot has stubbornly held above the median target.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1393.87
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap vs consensus: 1.01% above
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
What does the BoK decision on August 27 mean for USD/KRW relative to bank targets?
The Bank of Korea meets on August 27 with the calendar consensus estimate pointing to a rate of 3.00%, up from the current policy rate of 2.75%. That 25-basis-point implied move would represent a tightening cycle step — a meaningful shift in the domestic rate backdrop that most desks have not explicitly priced as a base case in their published targets, given that the overwhelming majority of the 18-firm panel carries a bearish USD/KRW stance implying KRW appreciation by year-end.
A confirmed hike to 3.00% would tighten the interest-rate differential in KRW's favour relative to current positioning, providing fundamental support for the won and reinforcing the bearish USD/KRW consensus. For the bulk of the panel — Goldman Sachs at 1380, Deutsche Bank at 1350, UBS at 1300 — a hike would be directionally consistent with their targets and could accelerate the move toward those levels if risk appetite holds.
A hold at 2.75% would remove a near-term KRW-positive catalyst and likely keep spot anchored above the 1380 consensus. Given that USD/KRW is already 1.01% above the median target, a hold outcome risks extending that gap further, particularly if global risk sentiment remains fragile. The pair would need to cover roughly 14 points just to reach the median — a move that looks less mechanical without a rate catalyst.
An unexpected cut would be the most disruptive scenario for the consensus view. Only Citi, the sole bullish outlier at 1460, would find a cut directionally supportive of its published target. The remaining desks would face a sharper divergence between their year-end calls and spot reality.
Which desks are positioned as outliers and where does dispersion concentrate?
At 180 points, the spread between the top target (Citi at 1460) and the bottom (StanChart at 1280, not shown in the 14-firm table but included in the 18-firm snapshot) is wide enough to suggest genuine disagreement on the macro regime, not merely rounding differences. The distribution is skewed: the bulk of the 14 most recently updated desks cluster between 1350 and 1410, with ING the only neutral at 1425 and Citi the only explicitly bullish name.
RBC Capital Markets at 1430 and J.P. Morgan at 1440 carry bearish stances despite targets above spot — a technically bearish USD/KRW view that nonetheless implies the pair ends the year higher than current levels. That apparent tension is worth flagging: a desk can be bearish on USD/KRW (expecting KRW to strengthen against the dollar over time) while still holding a year-end target that sits above today's spot if their baseline assumes near-term dollar resilience before a later reversal.
At the other extreme, UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 represent the most aggressive KRW-appreciation calls in the visible panel. Both would require a move of roughly 94 and 74 points respectively from current spot — achievable only if the BoK delivers a hawkish surprise or if global dollar weakness accelerates materially through Q4.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does USD/KRW spot stand relative to the bank consensus?
Spot at 1393.87 is 1.01% above the 18-firm Dec-26 median consensus of 1380.0, meaning the pair is trading above where the majority of sell-side desks expect it to finish the year.
How wide is the disagreement among forecasting banks?
The dispersion across all 18 firms is 180 points — the gap between the highest target (Citi at 1460) and the lowest (StanChart at 1280) — indicating a meaningful range of macro assumptions underpinning year-end calls.
What does a BoK hike to 3.00% imply for the pair?
A hike would tighten the rate differential in KRW's favour, directionally consistent with the bearish USD/KRW consensus held by the large majority of the 18-firm panel; it would support the move toward median targets in the 1350–1385 range.
Which firm holds the most bullish USD/KRW target in the consensus?
Citi, the sole explicitly bullish desk in the visible panel, carries a Dec-26 target of 1460 — 66 points above current spot and 80 points above the 18-firm median consensus of 1380.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 year-end target and how it diverges from the broader sell-side consensus on USD/KRW.
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