On this page · 4 sections▾
USD/KRW spot sits at 1410.87 as of the week of August 18, 2026 — 2.24% above the 18-firm median year-end target of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Consensus bias is bearish on the pair, though a 180-point dispersion between the most and least constructive desks signals genuine disagreement on the macro path.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 18, 2026): 1410.87
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (18 firms): 1380.0
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.24% (spot well above target)
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade above consensus despite a bearish skew?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published targets below spot are pricing some combination of Fed easing, BoK stability, and a semiconductor export recovery that has not yet fully materialised in the spot rate. The BoK has kept its policy rate on hold through mid-2026, resisting the impulse to cut ahead of the Fed — a posture that limits the rate-differential pressure that would otherwise keep the won pinned. Where the consensus errs, if it does, is in the timing assumption: markets are discounting a Fed pivot that has been repeatedly deferred, and until dollar funding costs visibly ease, the carry argument for KRW appreciation remains theoretical rather than executable.
The semiconductor cycle adds a second layer. Korean chip exports — the dominant driver of the current account — have recovered in volume terms, but average selling prices for memory have been volatile, and any softening in AI-related DRAM demand would compress the trade surplus that underpins KRW. Desks with the most aggressive bearish targets on USD/KRW, notably UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320, are implicitly pricing a sustained upcycle in semiconductor revenue alongside a meaningful Fed cutting sequence — a dual condition that leaves their targets exposed to slippage on either variable.
Where is dispersion widest, and what regime does each tail price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-18 06:05 UTC
The 180-point spread between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is among the widest in the G10-plus-Asia universe tracked here. That gap reflects fundamentally different macro regimes rather than model calibration differences.
Citi is the sole bullish outlier in the published table, pricing USD/KRW higher from spot. The desk's 1460 target implies the Fed stays restrictive longer, China's demand recovery remains insufficient to lift Korean exports materially, and domestic political uncertainty — a recurring KRW headwind — keeps offshore investors underweight Korean assets. At 1460, Citi is effectively pricing a no-landing US scenario alongside a Korea-specific risk premium.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 sits just below Citi but carries a bearish stance — meaning the desk expects the pair to fall from that target level over the forecast horizon, not rise to it. The distinction matters: JPM's 1440 is a near-term peak assumption, not a terminal view. RBC at 1430 occupies similar territory.
At the other end, UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 price an aggressive KRW recovery. Both desks embed a China beta assumption: a durable Chinese demand recovery would lift Korean semiconductor and petrochemical exports, compress the current account deficit risk, and reduce the won's structural vulnerability. China's property sector stabilisation and consumer spending data through H1 2026 have been mixed at best, which is part of why these targets remain distant from spot.
ING is the only desk carrying a neutral stance, with a 1425 target — above spot consensus but below current spot. ING's framing acknowledges that the BoK-Fed divergence is narrowing but argues the pace of KRW recovery will be constrained by China demand uncertainty and residual dollar strength in the near term.
How does the BoK-Fed rate path shape the year-end distribution?
The central analytical question for USD/KRW into December 2026 is whether the Fed delivers enough cuts to compress the rate differential materially before year-end. The BoK has signalled a preference to move after the Fed rather than ahead of it, which means the KRW's recovery trajectory is largely a function of US monetary policy sequencing.
If the Fed cuts twice more by December — a scenario that several of the more bearish desks embed — the dollar funding premium narrows, reducing the cost of holding KRW-denominated assets and supporting repatriation flows from Korean exporters. Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank, both at 1380, represent the consensus median and price exactly this base case. Morgan Stanley at 1360 and Deutsche Bank at 1350 price a slightly faster easing sequence or a stronger semiconductor tailwind.
The risk to the bearish consensus is a Fed that pauses again — whether due to sticky services inflation or a labour market that refuses to soften. In that scenario, spot USD/KRW could remain anchored above 1400 through year-end, validating Citi's outlier call and leaving the majority of the 18-firm panel offside.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of August 18, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1410.87.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW at end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 firms is 1380.0, implying a 2.24% decline from current spot levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target?
Citi holds the highest published target at 1460.0, the only desk with an explicitly bullish stance on the pair.
How wide is the spread of bank forecasts for USD/KRW?
Dispersion across the 18-firm panel is 180 points, from a low of 1280 (StanChart) to a high of 1460 (Citi) — one of the widest distributions in the Asian FX consensus.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook for the complete USD/KRW model and scenario analysis.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/KRW
More from USD/KRW
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: 1393.87 Spot vs 1380 Target, Week of August 20, 2026
USD/KRW trades at 1393.87, roughly 1% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion separating Citi from StanChart.
- USD/KRW
Bank of Korea Rate Decision Preview — August 27, 2026: What the Street Expects
USD/KRW spot at 1393.87 sits 1.01% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling meaningful disagreement on the path.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: Spot at 1396 vs 1380 Median, Week of Aug 19 2026
USD/KRW spot at 1396.58 sits 1.2% above the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling deep regime disagreement.
Share