Airbnb only part of Belgium’s housing affordability problem
The desk underscores the multifaceted nature of housing affordability issues in Belgium, emphasizing that while short-term rental platforms like Airbnb do contribute to supply constraints, they are not the sole factor. Per the full note from ING, short-term rentals have removed approximately 3,000 homes from the Brussels market alone, exacerbating the challenges posed by rising interest rates and increasing house prices. With the homeownership rate declining from 72.4% in 2022 to 70.9% in 2025, the desk highlights a pressing need for a comprehensive response to a market under duress. Without any imminent high-impact calendar events, these factors may have longer-term implications on economic stability and currency dynamics in the region.
What the desk is arguing
The desk asserts that short-term rentals, while impactful, are part of a larger spectrum of factors affecting housing affordability in Belgium. As noted by the research, structural issues play a significant role in the current market conditions, where a declining homeownership rate aligns with growing rental pressures.
The reported data indicates that Airbnb alone contributes to removing about 0.8% of rental housing stock from availability, particularly in high-demand areas like Brussels, Antwerp, and Ghent. This 3,000-unit reduction in Brussels, alongside rising interest rates, creates an untenable situation for many would-be homeowners and renters.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently sits at 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firms include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar-26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar-26)
This analysis reflects a divergence where bofa suggests a more conservative approach at the lower end of the range, absorbing the pressures from factors like interest rates and housing market constraints, while jpmorgan takes a slightly more optimistic view that could correlate with structural reforms in the housing sector.
How other firms see it
Most market participants, including jpmorgan, recognize the interconnected nature of housing stability and broader economic health, indicating an alignment of views towards stability in the Eurozone housing market. In contrast, bofa takes a more bearish stance, indicating potential volatility ahead due to ongoing housing challenges.
The state of the EUR/USD pair is closely mirrored by the ECB's monetary policy adjustments, which will remain a focal point for traders watching for signals related to housing market stability.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Short-term rentals like Airbnb exacerbate housing supply issues in Belgium, with structural challenges at play.
- 02Homeownership has decreased from 72.4% in 2022 to 70.9% in 2025, highlighting affordability concerns.
- 03Approximately 3,000 homes have been removed from the Brussels rental market, contributing to a tighter housing landscape.
- 04There are no immediate high-impact calendar events that may influence this market dynamics in the near term.
Market implications
Traders should monitor movements around the 1.075 target as this reflects broader economic uncertainties linked to housing affordability issues. Given recent trends, vigilance towards ECB policy communications could yield insights into potential shifts in market positioning.
Risks to this view
Should external factors such as sudden economic recovery or policy changes arise, they could lead to a reversal in the housing market trajectory, impacting associated currency valuations. Additionally, any rapid decrease in rental demand could lead to a quick reassessment of the housing supply dynamics.
Articles Airbnb only part of Belgium’s housing affordability problem 13:58 Real estate Belgium Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Short‑term rentals via platforms such as Airbnb reduce available housing supply in Belgium, adding pressure to an already tight housing market – but this is only part of the story Alissa Lefebre Structural bottlenecks lie at the heart of housing affordability challenges in Belgium Short-term rentals: a small but meaningful share of housing supply Online booking platforms have surged in popularity among both travellers and hosts in recent years. In 2024, around 1.23 million stays were booked via these platforms in Belgium, accounting for 12.3 million overnight stays. In 2025, the 10 million overnight stay threshold had already been surpassed in the first three quarters of the year.
While this strong growth highlights the increasing importance of short-term rentals, it also has implications for the housing market, particularly in high-demand urban and tourist areas. At the same time, structurally higher interest rates and rising house prices have reduced housing affordability. The homeownership rate declined from 72.4% in 2022 to 70.9% in 2025, accompanied by a growing number of renters, further increasing pressure on rental markets.
Against this backdrop, we estimate the impact of short-term rentals via sites like Airbnb in regions where data on entire homes is available, namely the Brussels-Capital Region, Antwerp and Ghent. These areas are characterised by persistently tight housing markets and rank among the most expensive rental markets in Belgium. Our estimates suggest that Airbnb removes around 3,000 homes from the regular housing supply in Brussels alone, with a further nearly 2,000 homes in Antwerp and Ghent combined.
In total, this corresponds to roughly 0.8% of the rental housing stock being unavailable for permanent occupancy due to short-term rentals. This share is likely higher when accounting for other platforms such as Booking.com and Expedia. While this confirms that short-term rentals contribute to housing market pressures, they remain only one part of the story and are not the main driver of housing affordability challenges in Belgium.
Airbnb is estimated to have removed nearly 5,000 homes from the regular housing market Source: Inside Airbnb, BISA, own calculations ING "> Source: Inside Airbnb, BISA, own calculations ING Structural bottlenecks lie at the heart of housing affordability challenges While a legislative framework to regulate short-term rentals has been in place for some time in Belgium, its impact has been limited due to low compliance. The new European regulation that entered into force in May aims to address this by requiring platforms to share data. A key next step is the creation of a national registration system, which could bring an estimated 1,800 out of 4,650 homes back to the regular housing market.
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