Commentary

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's event?

Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 71 bps (71% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) ECB: 64 bps (98% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoJ: 43 bps (81% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoE: 41 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA:

Global Commodities: Is that it?

If anything stands out in energy markets now, it is that prices have become remarkably sanguine despite an ongoing supply shock. Although market confidence and fundamentals have both contributed, our scenario analysis draws out less comfortable alternatives as the conflict drags

Global FX: Payrolls postmortem, ECB/ BoC watch, euro roundup

Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan unpack the latest payrolls report, emphasizing U.S. exceptionalism, and preview the upcoming central bank meetings. This podcast was recorded on 05 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institution

The US Blockade of Iran after Six Weeks

Much of the commentary on the US blockade says it's failed, but that's total nonsense

ECBs Lane:Monetary policy decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis

ECBs Lane gave a speech at a Dinner event. Below are the main commentary on the Economy/Policy. Supply-driven energy shocks hurt euro area growth: Lane said oil-price increases caused by supply disruptions — especially geopolitical events — tend to lower euro area GDP growth by a

Taking Stock of the US Blockade

There's endless commentary that the blockade has failed, but that's total nonsense