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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Morgan Stanley projects that the EUR/USD pair could rise to 1.23 by this spring before experiencing a decline. This forecast aligns with a broader positive sentiment among several financial institutions, indicating a potential upward trend in the currency's value in the short term.
Morgan Stanley's prediction of EUR/USD reaching 1.23 by spring reflects their bullish stance on the euro against the US dollar. Given the current spot rate at 1.1500, this indicates a considerable appreciation within a short timeline, suggesting significant market shifts driven by macroeconomic factors.
In support of this view, various firms have also set targets that reflect a similar upward trend. Our own consensus median for March 2026 stands at 1.1800, indicating a collective expectation for the euro to strengthen, albeit with a wider variation among different institutions. The desk is implicitly rejecting any notion of sustained weakness in the euro over this period, suggesting that current market dynamics favor an appreciation.
The consensus forecast for EUR/USD shows a median target of 1.1800 for March 2026, with a range of 1.1700 to 1.2000, suggesting an overall bullish market sentiment. This aligns with Morgan Stanley's projections that envision the euro climbing sharply short-term while diverging slightly in longer-term expectations, as they predict a drop to 1.1600 by December 2026.
Specific firms' December 2026 targets include: - JPMorgan: 1.2000 - Goldman: 1.2500 - Deutsche Bank: 1.2500
While Morgan Stanley's view is aligned with the overall positive sentiment, MUFG has a more cautious outlook, with their forecast showing a marginally lower target of 1.2400 for December 2026.
Several institutions appear to align with Morgan Stanley: - Goldman with a December target of 1.2500 - Deutsche Bank at 1.2500
Both of these forecasts reinforce the general bullish environment anticipated for EUR/USD despite potential future adjustments.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
An anticipated rise in EUR/USD may encourage risk-on sentiment, impacting dollar-denominated assets and prompting investor reallocations towards eurozone equities and bonds. This could also affect the European Central Bank's response to inflationary pressures as the euro strengthens.
Risks to this view
Trends in economic data from both the Eurozone and the U.S. could pose risks to these forecasts, especially if inflationary pressures or geopolitical tensions arise. A sudden change in central bank policies on either side could also lead to volatility, affecting exchange rate dynamics.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bearish | 1.1000 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
All 31 desk targets for EUR/USD
How we cover this story
USD resilience despite US political uncertainty suggests safe-haven demand remains the dominant driver; EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1200 month-range may accelerate if risk sentiment deteriorates.
EUR/USD upside capped by continued dollar cash rotation despite US tech weakness; Treasury correlation reassertion limits euro tactical strength.
EUR/USD breaks below 1.1200 technical level ahead of data events; watch for Eurozone retail sales and US nonfarm payroll reactions.
USD strength contingent on NFP data; break of 102.10 DXY would confirm momentum toward EUR/USD 1.1100 support.
EUR/USD spot sits 2.69% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.145, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD spot sits 2.19% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD spot at 1.1191 sits 2.68% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish despite tape underperformance.
31 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1469 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecastStanChart |
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