Poland’s consumers shrug off higher fuel prices in July
The desk interprets Poland's consumer resilience in light of rising fuel prices as a significant indicator of underlying economic strength, which could influence the PLN positively. Recent data indicates that Polish retail sales grew by 3.9% YoY in July despite higher fuel costs, suggesting that consumer spending remains robust even amid inflationary pressures. Per the full note from ING, this gradual slowdown in retail sales is less severe than anticipated, with durable goods expenditure confirming consumer confidence in the economy moving into the second half of the year.
What the desk is arguing
The thesis posits that Polish consumers are demonstrating resilience against rising fuel prices, suggesting robust economic fundamentals that may bolster the PLN. The July retail sales numbers indicate only a modest slowdown, with a YoY increase of 3.9%, significantly above ING's forecast of 3.3% and just shy of market consensus of 4.4%.
Importantly, while fuel prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and VAT adjustments, areas such as durable goods maintained significant growth—even in the face of hardship—reinforcing the resilience of consumer demand. For instance, sales of furniture and consumer electronics saw impressive growth rates of 8.8% YoY, underscoring sustained purchasing power in key sectors despite challenges.
Where it sits in our coverage
Current consensus for EUR/PLN shows targets with a range defined predominantly by the firms monitoring this pair: - JP Morgan: 1.10 by Mar26 - BofA: 1.04 by Mar26
This view aligns closely with the general sentiment, though our desk's analysis might place it slightly above the consensus midpoint, signaling potential strength in the PLN ahead of upcoming economic indicators.
How other firms see it
Firms like JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are aligned with the desk's interpretation, viewing strong retail sales as a positive signal for the PLN. Conversely, BofA diverges, indicating potential headwinds from overall inflation that could impact consumer spending.
As EUR/USD trends are intricately linked to these shifts, particularly around policy adjustments by the ECB in response to inflation, this will be a critical watchpoint going forward.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Polish retail sales rose 3.9% YoY in July, indicating consumer resilience.
- 02Durable goods spending remained strong despite rising fuel prices.
- 03Positive outlook suggests potential PLN appreciation in the context of a stable economy.
- 04Market participants should monitor economic indicators that reflect consumer health.
Market implications
Traders should watch for movements within the PLN as it absorbs these consumer metrics, especially if further retail growth data supports the window for PLN strengthening against the EUR, particularly around the 1.10 level.
Risks to this view
The primary risks to this call involve unexpected changes in consumer sentiment due to further escalations in fuel costs or broader global inflationary pressures, which could dampen consumer spending more severely than currently anticipated.
Older quick take Quick take Published 11:00 Poland Poland’s consumers shrug off higher fuel prices in July Polish consumers proved resilient to July’s fuel price shock. Retail sales growth slowed only modestly, with spending on durable goods remaining robust. While higher fuel costs squeezed household budgets, consumption continues to support economic growth.
We still see 2026 GDP growth at 3.4% July saw slower but solid retail sales in Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Adam Antoniak Senior Economist, Poland Leszek Kasek Senior Economist, Poland Retail sales rose by 3.9% YoY in July (ING: 3.3%; consensus: 4.4%), following a 6.2% increase in June. Seasonally adjusted data points to a 0.3% MoM decline in real sales of goods. As expected, July brought a moderation in retail sales growth compared with June, when the ceasefire between the US and Iran, falling oil prices and the government-backed fuel discount scheme (lower excise and VAT) supported household purchasing power.
However, the slowdown in July proved milder than we anticipated. Fuel prices at the pump increased in July, driven by a renewed rise in crude oil prices following the re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the reinstatement of the standard 23% VAT rate on fuels, replacing the temporary 8% rate. Despite double-digit fuel price inflation, real fuel sales were broadly unchanged from a year earlier (-0.2% YoY).
As a result, households had less room for other spending, but the impact on broader consumption remained limited. Demand for durable goods continues to hold up well, with only a modest slowdown from June. Sales of furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances rose by 8.8% YoY, down from 14.8% YoY in June, while sales of cars, motorcycles and car parts increased by 8.1% YoY (from 9.6% YoY a month earlier).
Purchases of pharmaceuticals and orthopaedic equipment maintained double-digit growth at 10.8% YoY, compared with 10.2% YoY in June. Food sales increased for a second consecutive month (1.5% YoY), while sales of clothing and footwear declined by 1.7% YoY. Robust sale of durable goods Retail sales (real), %YoY Despite volatility in the fuel market, consumers remain remarkably composed, and spending on durable goods continues to expand at a solid pace.
We expect private consumption growth in 2026 to be somewhat less dynamic than last year (around 3% vs. 3.7% in 2025), reflecting slower wage growth and higher fuel prices. Even so, consumer spending remains an important stabiliser of economic activity. We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.4%, while expecting investment growth to accelerate strongly.
Sources & References
How we cover this story