FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
The rupee's weakness is a fairly direct read through of the broader oil driven risk premium building around the Hormuz standoff, with Brent's advance toward the $88 level adding fresh pressure on India's import bill and currency. RBI's consistent dollar selling near current level
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|
Société Générale | Bearish | 1.1400 |
Scotiabank | Bearish | 1.1200 |
Commerzbank | Bullish | 1.2200 |
All 30 desk targets for EUR/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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How we cover this story
Lower Fed terminal rate pricing narrows USD/EUR support; monitor PCE prints for conviction shifts in carry unwind risk.
Lower Fed rate hike odds reduce carry support for USD and extend EUR/USD reprieve; monitor next inflation print for hike probability reset.
ECB hawkish expectations tighten rate differential vs USD, supporting EUR/USD through policy divergence premium.
Cable trades 0.42% above the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.23-point spread from Citi's 1.24 to Morgan Stanley's 1.47.
USD/JPY trades 4.64% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1571, just 0.25% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, but a 0.14 dispersion range signals deep disagreement beneath the surface.
30 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1628 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecast