The Commodities Feed: US-Iran peace deal
Lead — The recent interim US-Iran peace deal has catalyzed a significant shift in energy markets, largely depreciating oil prices amid expectations of an eased geopolitical risk. Per the full note from ing-think, oil prices have dropped to around $80/bbl for NYMEX WTI and $84/bbl for Brent. With the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US naval blockade on Iranian shipments, the market anticipates a gradual return to normal supply levels. While these dynamics suggest softer long-term prices, the desk remains cautious, observing that logistical challenges could impede full flow restoration and maintain some price support due to required inventory rebuilds across the board.
What the desk is arguing
The imminent US-Iran peace agreement is set to reshape energy market dynamics significantly, as it fosters the expectation for smoother oil supply routes. The desk frames this as a critical juncture for oil pricing, noting that Brent and WTI futures have seen declines of around 6.5% following the announcement of the deal, highlighting the market's immediate reaction to decreased geopolitical tensions.
The anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is particularly salient, given that it has historically been a vital artery for oil transport, influencing global pricing. Furthermore, Baker Hughes reported a rise in US oil rig counts, suggesting a domestic production response to the evolving global supply landscape.
Where it sits in our coverage
Given our internal targets, the expected normalization of supplies might impact our outlook on oil pricing, but specific target numbers are not available in the current coverage. However, firms like jpmorgan and bofa have issued conflicting perspectives on where they see the market heading, especially in light of geopolitical shifts.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with the bullish outlook on oil include jpmorgan, forecasting a rebound, while bofa holds a contrary stance with a more cautious approach to the market amidst ongoing risks. These contrasting views reflect the uncertainty in the market about whether peace will stabilize prices or if other geopolitical tensions may offset gains. Look for fluctuations in oil pricing to correlate with further developments from the US Federal Reserve, as interest rate decisions could indirectly influence energy costs.
What the calendar says
No upcoming high-impact events are scheduled that would directly affect the energy markets or the US-Iran peace agreement in the near term, suggesting a quieter period in which markets will react to news as it develops rather than scheduled releases.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The US-Iran peace deal has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, with Brent around $84/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl.
- 02The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may ease supply concerns but could take time to yield full logistical recovery.
- 03US oil rig counts are rising, indicating a response to new supply dynamics despite geopolitical risks.
- 04No significant calendar events are on the horizon that would likely affect oil market sentiment.
Market implications
Watch for oil prices' ability to stabilize around $80/bbl; continued declines may find a floor at this level unless geopolitical tensions resurface. Monitor supply chain recovery in the coming weeks for real-time adjustments to pricing.
Risks to this view
A sudden escalation in US-Iran tensions or conflicts in other oil-rich regions could rapidly negate the positive effects of the peace deal, pushing prices back up sharply. Additionally, potential logistical issues surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could create market volatility.
Articles The Commodities Feed: US-Iran peace deal 08:34 Commodities daily Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Energy markets slumped after the US and Iran reached an interim deal to de‑escalate their prolonged conflict, raising the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing supply risks Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson Oil prices have fallen after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire Energy - Oil slumps Oil prices slumped on Monday, with NYMEX WTI around $80/bbl and Brent tumbling to around $84/bbl, after the US announced an interim deal with Iran and potential resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz from Friday, alongside the removal of the US naval blockade on Iranian shipments. Full details remain unclear, but reports suggest the agreement includes a halt to military activity across all fronts, including Lebanon. The deal is expected to be formally signed on 19 June in Switzerland.
Trump said the Strait would open after the agreement is signed and mines are removed from the waterway. Still, restarting infrastructure and logistics flows could take time, while some shipping operators may remain cautious about returning to the Strait in the near term. Meanwhile, inventories and strategic stockpiles will need to be rebuilt after recent disruptions, which should keep prices supported even as flows gradually resume.
Baker Hughes data shows the US oil rig count rose by two to 433 last week, marking a seventh consecutive weekly increase and the highest since 20 June 2025. Primary Vision’s frac spread count also increased, signalling continued strength in completion activity. European gas prices are also trading lower following the US-Iran agreement.
TTF extended losses for a third session, down around 6.5% at the time of writing, trading below EUR44/MWh on Monday morning. Reports of resumed LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have eased supply concerns that had supported prices since March. Storage injections continue, with EU inventories above 44% full versus a five-year average of 58.7%.
The latest positioning data shows speculators cut net long positions in ICE Brent for a sixth consecutive week, down 43,609 lots to 208,891 lots as of last Tuesday, with gross longs falling and shorts increasing. This marks the least bullish positioning since mid-January 2026. In NYMEX WTI, money managers reduced net longs by 1,052 lots to 123,207 lots, the lowest since early March.
The reduction reflects improving sentiment around a US–Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Metals - Gold advances after US-Iran agreement Spot gold extended gains for a third consecutive session, rising above $4,335/oz this morning following the US–Iran agreement. This has eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for further rate hikes.
Both sides also committed to avoiding military action and to a 60-day negotiation period on Iran’s nuclear programme. A more constructive macro backdrop is still needed for sustained upside in gold, including lower yields, softer oil prices, and clear signs that Federal Reserve hawkish repricing has peaked. Despite the rebound, gold remains around 18% below levels seen at the start of the conflict, with elevated energy prices continuing to support inflation and weigh on non-yielding assets.
Meanwhile, CFTC positioning shows speculators reduced net longs in COMEX copper by 6,004 lots to 71,127 lots as of 9 June. Managed money net longs in COMEX gold fell by 7,681 lots to 103,660 lots, driven largely by an increase in gross shorts. Silver also saw a modest reduction in net longs, down 639 lots to 9,794 lots, reflecting further long liquidation.
Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Ewa Manthey Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey is a Commodities Strategist based in London.
She joined the bank in September 2022 and covers the entire commodities complex, with a particular focus on the metals markets. She has… Warren Patterson Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson is Head of Commodities strategy based in Singapore. He joined the bank in April 2016 and covers the entire commodities complex.
Previously, he worked at a commodities trade house… In this article Energy - Oil slumps Metals - Gold advances after US-Iran agreement
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