FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
The Treasury's language keeps pressure on Tokyo to accelerate policy normalisation, but it stops short of any direct US action, leaving the yen's fate largely in the Bank of Japan's hands. With the currency at a 40-year low and Japanese authorities already signalling readiness to
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|
Société Générale | Bearish | 1.1400 |
Scotiabank | Bearish | 1.1200 |
Commerzbank | Bullish | 1.2200 |
All 30 desk targets for EUR/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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How we cover this story
Lower Fed terminal rate pricing narrows USD/EUR support; monitor PCE prints for conviction shifts in carry unwind risk.
Lower Fed rate hike odds reduce carry support for USD and extend EUR/USD reprieve; monitor next inflation print for hike probability reset.
ECB hawkish expectations tighten rate differential vs USD, supporting EUR/USD through policy divergence premium.
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1571, just 0.25% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, but a 0.14 dispersion range signals deep disagreement beneath the surface.
Cable trades within 0.25% of the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, masking a 0.23 spread between Morgan Stanley at 1.47 and Citi at 1.24.
USD/JPY trades 4.82% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path.
30 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1628 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecast