USD supply: Another trillion for corporates
Lead — The desk anticipates continued robust USD corporate issuance in 2027, which is projected at approximately $1 trillion, according to insights from ING. This forecast reflects a persistent demand for capital, particularly from the technology sector, as companies seek to finance expansive investments in infrastructure and digital technologies. With redemptions steady at $553 billion, net supply of around $447 billion will contribute to the prevailing USD liquidity landscape. Per the full note, the higher issuance compared to the EUR market suggests potential pressure on USD valuations as outstanding supply grows.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that a significant wave of corporate debt issuance in USD, projected to reach around $1 trillion in 2027, signals a strong demand for USD liquidity. This trend, driven by ongoing investments in technology infrastructure and hyperscaler funding requirements, indicates that the balance of supply will weigh more heavily on the USD market relative to its EUR counterpart, as highlighted by ING.
A crucial driver for this issuance is the tech sector, which alone is expected to raise up to $280 billion in 2027. This includes around $190 billion in USD, underscoring the integral role tech firms will play in shaping the USD supply dynamics. The implications are clear: as corporates ramp up their borrowing, the associated supply side could exert downward pressure on the USD in the longer term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for USD/EUR is 1.075, anchored between expectations from various firms. For instance, jpmorgan has set a target of 1.10 for March 2026, reflecting bullish sentiment on the USD relative to EUR.
This view aligns with a broader market outlook that anticipates a stronger supply demand dynamic in the USD market compared to the EUR. Given the anticipated issuance levels from key sectors, our projection sits near the upper bound of the prevailing range in the market.
How other firms see it
Firms such as jpmorgan are aligned with this forecast, citing strong corporate borrowing trends as a positive signal for the USD. In contrast, bofa presents a more cautious stance, projecting a lower target of 1.04.
It's also worth noting the relationship between this issuance trend and broader USD perceptions, especially as influenced by Fed policy and interest rate movements. Regional differences in capital flight could be pivotal, particularly observing emerging positions in pairs like USD/JPY, as these flows could reflect a search for yield amid rising rates.
What the calendar says
With no high-impact events scheduled in the near future, the focus will likely remain on ongoing corporate actions and the broader economic climate as we approach the 2027 issuance peak.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01USD corporate issuance projected at approximately $1 trillion in 2027, reflecting ongoing investment demands.
- 02The technology sector, particularly hyperscalers, will significantly drive this issuance with an expected $280 billion.
- 03Compared to the EUR market, USD will bear a heavier net supply burden with $447 billion in 2027.
- 04Increased supply pressures could impact USD valuations, particularly against the euro.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the USD/EUR pair closely, particularly as corporate issuance ramps up. The current consensus target may face pressure if supply dynamics significantly shift, especially ahead of any shifts in corporate financial policies or central bank strategies.
Risks to this view
Should there be a dramatic shift in investor sentiment or corporate financial health, leading to reduced issuance or spikes in redemptions, this could invalidate the expected supply dynamics favoring the USD. Additionally, any significant central bank interventions or changes in monetary policy could also alter the landscape dramatically.
Articles USD supply: Another trillion for corporates Published 10:16 Credit Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download We forecast another hefty year for USD corporate issuance in 2027, with supply once again set to reach around US$1tr Timothy Rahill and Jeroen van den Broek Dollar supply stays strong as corporate issuance heads towards another US$1tr year We forecast another hefty year for USD corporate issuance in 2027, with gross supply again expected to be around US$1tr. While below the record-like US$1.1tr seen in both 2020 and 2026, issuance is expected to remain exceptionally strong by historical standards. Redemptions are expected to remain broadly unchanged at US$553bn, leaving net supply of around US$447bn.
While this is a modest improvement from 2026, the USD market will continue to face a significantly heavier net supply burden than its EUR counterpart. USD Corporate supply set to see another big year Source: ING, Dealogic "> Source: ING, Dealogic Hyperscalers and tech issuers are a driving force As discussed above , the scale of investment required for data centres, energy infrastructure and digital capacity is unprecedented. The financing burden has spread well beyond technology firms themselves and is increasingly influencing broader capital markets.
Already in 2026, the hyperscalers have been a major source of debt issuance, raising around US$237bn across currencies, including US$160bn in USD and US$31bn in EUR. Issuance has been led by the usual suspects: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle and IBM. Looking ahead, we expect hyperscaler funding needs to increase further as investment in AI infrastructure, data centres and power capacity accelerates.
As a result, we forecast total issuance of around US$280bn in 2027, including approximately US$190bn in USD and US$65bn in EUR (€60bn). The rest of the technology sector will also remain very busy in 2027, with an expected US$200bn forecast to come to market. M&A is substantial M&A activity should continue to support primary market volumes.
While technology has grabbed the headlines, M&A outside the sector has also accelerated, with both US and European deal activity reaching new highs in 2026. The pipeline remains healthy, suggesting momentum should carry into at least the first half of 2027. However, higher rates, rising debt costs and somewhat tighter liquidity conditions are likely to become a greater constraint over time.
As a result, we expect M&A-related issuance to remain supportive of supply, albeit at a more moderate pace as the year progresses. M&A on the rise Source: ING "> Source: ING Higher rates, higher cost of debt All-in yields in USD IG credit have risen back towards 5.2% (5yr), driven largely by higher underlying rates rather than wider credit spreads. Looking ahead, our rates strategists expect a modest steepening bias in 2027, with slightly more downward momentum at the front end of the curve.
The broader message, however, is that rates should remain elevated enough to keep all-in yields attractive. We expect only limited changes in outright rates, curve shape and swap spreads, leaving all-in yields broadly intact. As a result, the search for yield should remain a powerful tailwind for credit markets throughout 2027, although the same elevated rates continue to increase the cost of debt for issuers.
Cost of debt has risen Source: ING, IHS Markit "> Source: ING, IHS Markit Sectors supply shows the amount of tech issuance Most sectors are expected to see relatively modest net supply in 2027. The clear exception is TMT, which will once again dominate issuance volumes. We forecast around US$180bn of supply from the hyperscalers alone, with a further US$850bn coming from the broader technology universe.
Telecoms should add another US$60bn, leaving TMT firmly at the centre of the supply story. Utilities remain another major source of issuance as rising capex requirements continue to drive funding needs, extending a trend that has defined the sector in recent years. Healthcare and Industrials should also remain active issuers, although a sizeable portion of gross supply will be offset by elevated redemption profiles.
In short, while net supply remains contained across much of the market, technology and utilities continue to shoulder the bulk of issuance growth in 2027. Supply per sector (US$bn) Source: ING, Dealogic "> Source: ING, Dealogic Usd Fed Credit Bonds Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Timothy Rahill Credit Strategist Timothy Rahill is a credit strategist at ING Bank in Amsterdam. He joined the Bank straight out of University in 2019, after relocating to the Netherlands from Dublin. He graduated from Technical… Jeroen van den Broek Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen is Global Head of Sector Research, based in Amsterdam.
He started working for ING Financial Markets in 2001. His main focus is investment grade credit strategy with a particular focus on… In this article Hyperscalers and tech issuers are a driving force M&A is substantial Higher rates, higher cost of debt Sectors supply shows the amount of tech issuance
Sources & References
How we cover this story