What’s next for US copper import tariffs
The upcoming US decision on copper import tariffs is poised to significantly affect the copper market, with the Commerce Secretary's recommendation expected by June 30. Per the full note from ing-think, the market has already reacted, reflected in the widening COMEX-LME spread, which now stands at approximately $400 per ton, indicating substantial tariff risk pricing. The positioning around copper is currently robust due to factors like tight supply chains and heightened demand driven by AI technology, supporting copper's resiliency despite broader economic pressures. Traders should remain attuned to copper price movements, particularly as they align with macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical tensions.
What the desk is arguing
The current dynamics of the copper market suggest that any tariff extension to refined copper could exacerbate existing tightness and cause price volatility. Per the full note from ing-think, current LME copper prices have risen around 10% year-to-date, maintaining strength amidst challenging economic conditions.
Supply tightness, driven by factors such as stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs and demand from AI-related power needs, further underscores this resilience. The imminent tariff decision could have material ramifications on the copper pricing landscape, particularly if refined copper is included, resulting in speculations and shifts in trading strategies.
Where it sits in our coverage
- J.P. Morgan: 1.10 (Mar26)
- Bank of America: 1.04 (Mar26)
Currently, the desk's bullish outlook aligns with J.P. Morgan, positioning at the higher end of the consensus targets. The estimates vary, with Bank of America suggesting a lower threshold, indicating diverging strategies depending on tariff outcomes.
How other firms see it
Firms such as J.P. Morgan express optimism on copper prices, whereas Bank of America maintains a cautious stance. This divergence highlights the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on refined copper versus broader market trends.
Additionally, the copper price dynamics are closely tied to US economic indicators, particularly employment data, which may influence Federal Reserve policy and thus indirectly impact copper pricing trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01US copper import tariff decision expected by June 30
- 02Current market pricing shows significant risk related to tariffs
- 03Robust supply-demand dynamics supporting copper prices
- 04LME copper up 10% year-to-date amidst broader economic pressures
Market implications
Traders should monitor the COMEX-LME spread closely, as any significant shifts could signal changing market sentiments regarding tariff expectations. The copper prices may react sharply following the June 30 decision, influencing broader commodity trading strategies.
Risks to this view
Failure to implement higher tariffs on refined copper may lead to a rapid decline in prices, eroding current support levels. Conversely, increased geopolitical tensions or unexpected supply disruptions could also force a reevaluation of market pricing.
Articles What’s next for US copper import tariffs 09:23 Commodities, Food & Agri Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The US tariff decision on copper imports is weeks away, with the Commerce Secretary due to deliver a recommendation to President Donald Trump by 30 June. The market has already begun pricing the outcome. The COMEX-LME spread has widened to around $400/t, suggesting the market continues to price meaningful tariff risk into US-delivered refined copper Ewa Manthey Supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-linked power demand are supporting copper prices Where we are now LME copper is trading near record highs, with prices up around 10% year-to-date and holding up well against a difficult macro backdrop.
Strong US jobs data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive for longer, while renewed tensions involving Iran have weighed on broader risk sentiment. Supply tightness, US tariff-driven stockpiling and AI-linked power demand are keeping copper more resilient than the broader complex, with the tariff decision now only weeks away. What the tariff decision looks like When President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper in July 2025, refined copper was carved out.
That exemption is now under review. The Commerce Secretary has until 30 June to deliver an updated recommendation to Trump on whether and how to extend tariffs to refined copper. The original Commerce Department proposal called for a 15% tariff on refined copper imports effective January 2027, escalating to 30% in 2028.
Earlier this month, Trump signed a proclamation adjusting the broader metals tariff framework – maintaining the 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, lowering the domestic content threshold from 95% to 85% to qualify for preferential treatment, and broadening the scope to include additional semi-fabricated products such as electrical conductors and cables. New rates took effect 8 June. These changes are widely seen as preparatory steps ahead of the refined copper review, making it easier for importers to qualify for preferential treatment tied to domestically produced metal.
How the market has already repositioned Since February, US copper imports have spiked in anticipation of the tariff deadline, encouraging additional shipments into the US and tightening supply in other regions. COMEX-registered inventories have risen to record highs. That build has come directly at the expense of LME and SHFE stocks, which have declined sharply over the same period.
COMEX stocks hit records, LME inventories also trend higher Source: COMEX, LME, ING Research "> Source: COMEX, LME, ING Research Meanwhile ex-US inventories have declined sharply Source: LME, SHFE, ING Research "> Source: LME, SHFE, ING Research This is not a demand-driven inventory build. It reflects a geographic redistribution of available metal driven by tariff arbitrage. A significant volume of copper cathode is now economically 'locked' into the US market.
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