On this page · 4 sections▾
As of the week of August 5, 2026, the six EM pairs tracked here sit in mixed territory relative to December 2026 consensus targets: spot is trading above median on USD/INR (+9.32%), USD/TRY (-5.32% below median, implying further lira depreciation ahead), and USD/KRW (+3.19%), while USD/MXN (-3.72%) and USD/BRL (+0.33%) cluster near or below their respective medians. The aggregate picture is one of selective USD resilience against EM, not a clean directional call.
Key Numbers
- USD/MXN spot 17.2347 vs. Dec-26 median 17.90 — spot is 3.72% below consensus, implying the market has already run ahead of where desks expected the peso to trade
- USD/BRL spot 5.117 vs. Dec-26 median 5.10 — essentially at consensus; range 4.50–5.70 across 19 firms
- USD/ZAR spot 16.3311 vs. Dec-26 median 16.175 — spot 0.97% above median; range 15.50–18.00 across 18 firms
- USD/TRY spot 47.574 vs. Dec-26 median 50.25 — spot 5.32% below median; lira has outperformed consensus trajectory, range 43.50–56.30
- USD/INR spot 95.107 vs. Dec-26 median 87.00 — spot 9.32% above median; widest gap in the set and the most crowded bearish-USD call
- USD/KRW spot 1423.98 vs. Dec-26 median 1380.00 — spot 3.19% above median; range 1280–1460 across 18 firms
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Deutsche Bank · Morgan Stanley · Rabobank · UBS +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-05 16:05 UTC
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | StanChart | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Citi | 19.2 | bullish |
| USD/INR | Commerzbank | 96.0 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Most Crowded — and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/INR carries the most structurally crowded positioning in this set. With spot at 95.107 and the December median at 87.00, the gap is 9.32 figures — by far the largest absolute divergence across the six pairs. Both UBS (83.5) and Commerzbank (96.0) are bearish USD/INR, meaning both desks expect the rupee to strengthen or hold, yet they sit 12.5 figures apart in their year-end targets. That range — 83.5 to 96.0 — is the widest relative spread in the set when expressed as a percentage of spot, and it signals genuine uncertainty about the pace of RBI policy normalisation and India's current account trajectory rather than a consensus view with minor variance.
USD/TRY is the second most dispersed pair. The 43.5–56.3 range across 18 firms spans 12.8 figures, and the pair's spot of 47.574 sits 5.32% below the 50.25 median — meaning the lira has outrun the consensus depreciation path. UBS at 43.5 is the most bullish lira call in the set; ING at 56.3 implies roughly 18% further depreciation from current spot. The gap between those two views reflects unresolved disagreement on whether the CBRT's rate cycle has done enough to anchor inflation expectations.
USD/BRL is the tightest consensus. Spot at 5.117 is essentially at the 5.10 median, and the 4.50–5.70 range, while nominally wide, reflects a market that has converged on a base case of near-stability for the real through year-end. BNP Paribas at 5.70 is the most bearish-BRL call; ING at 4.50 is the most bullish. Given spot's proximity to the median, BRL is the pair where the consensus offers the least directional edge.
Which Pairs Are Desks Pushing for Carry?
Carry logic in EM FX runs through the pairs where the consensus median implies meaningful USD depreciation from current spot — i.e., where holding the EM currency earns the rate differential and the consensus expects spot to move in the same direction.
USD/KRW fits that profile imperfectly. Spot at 1423.98 sits 3.19% above the 1380 median, and StanChart at 1280 is the most aggressive won-bull call. Korea's rate structure does not offer the carry premium of a high-yielder, but the convergence trade — spot returning to median — is the implicit thesis for the majority of the 18 desks in the panel.
MXN is the more conventional carry candidate. The peso's rate differential against the dollar has historically been the primary draw, and with spot at 17.2347 already 3.72% below the 17.90 median, the carry is not augmented by a consensus spot tailwind — if anything, spot has run ahead of where desks expected it to be. Citi at 19.2 is the outlier bull-USD call, implying the peso gives back its recent gains; StanChart at 17.0 is the most constructive on MXN. For carry-focused accounts, the MXN trade is now more about defending a position than initiating one at consensus.
ZAR sits in the middle. The 15.5–18.0 range across 18 firms is the widest in absolute terms for a non-TRY pair, and Deutsche Bank at 15.5 versus Citi at 18.0 captures the full spectrum of views on South Africa's fiscal path and commodity exposure. Spot at 16.3311 is 0.97% above the 16.175 median — a modest gap — so ZAR is neither crowded long nor obviously mispriced relative to consensus.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the December 2026 consensus target for USD/INR?
The cross-firm median for USD/INR is 87.00, based on 19 contributing desks, with a range of 83.5 (UBS) to 96.0 (Commerzbank).
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion as of August 5, 2026?
USD/TRY carries the widest nominal range at 43.5–56.3 across 18 firms, a spread of 12.8 figures; USD/INR's 83.5–96.0 range is comparably wide relative to spot.
Where is spot furthest from the consensus median?
USD/INR at 9.32% above its December median is the largest gap in the set; USD/TRY at 5.32% below its median is the second largest.
How many firms contribute to this consensus panel?
The panel covers 20 firms in aggregate, with individual pair coverage ranging from 18 to 19 desks depending on the currency.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for their bullish-USD views across USD/MXN, USD/ZAR, and USD/KRW, or browse the complete EM FX forecasts panel for all six pairs.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
More from EM FX
- EM FX
EM FX Consensus Map, Dec-2026: Six Pairs, 20 Desks
Across six EM pairs, consensus ranges from near-flat on BRL to a 9.4% spot-vs-median gap on INR, with dispersion widest in TRY and KRW.
- EM FX
EM FX Consensus Check: Week of August 4, 2026
Cross-EM consensus as of August 4, 2026 shows wide dispersion across six pairs, with USD/INR the most dislocated at spot 9.62% above its Dec-26 median.
- EM FX
EM FX Consensus Check: Week of August 3, 2026
Cross-EM consensus as of August 3, 2026 shows USD/INR the most stretched pair at +9.57% above median, while USD/BRL sits nearly on target.
Share