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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, spot levels as of August 10, 2026 sit at varying distances from December 2026 consensus medians, with dispersion widest in USD/TRY (range: 43.5–56.3) and dislocation most acute in USD/INR, where spot trades nearly 9.5% above the median target of 87.0.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot (95.29) is the furthest from consensus, running +9.53% above the Dec-26 median of 87.0
- USD/TRY has the widest forecast range across all six pairs: 43.5–56.3, a spread of 12.8 handles
- USD/MXN spot (17.14) sits 4.24% below its Dec-26 median of 17.9, implying consensus expects further USD strength
- USD/BRL and USD/ZAR are the tightest to consensus: spot vs median at +0.19% and +0.15% respectively
- USD/KRW spot (1417.99) is 2.75% above the Dec-26 median of 1380.0
- 18–19 firms contribute to each pair's consensus; USD/ZAR and USD/TRY have 18 contributors, the rest 19
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Morgan Stanley · Rabobank · UBS · Kotaksecurities +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-10 21:05 UTC
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | StanChart | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Citi | 19.2 | bullish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | DB | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Commerzbank | 96.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Most Crowded, and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL and USD/ZAR are the two pairs where spot has effectively converged with the December median — gaps of +0.19% and +0.15% respectively. With 19 and 18 firms contributing, those medians are robust, and the tight spot-to-consensus relationship suggests the market has already priced the consensus view. There is little informational edge in the median for either pair at current levels.
USD/TRY is the outlier on dispersion. The 12.8-handle range between UBS at 43.5 and ING at 56.3 reflects genuine disagreement about the pace of CBRT policy normalisation and whether the lira carry trade remains viable through year-end. Spot at 47.71 sits below the Dec-26 median of 50.25, a gap of -5.05%, meaning the median desk expects further lira depreciation from here. That is a meaningful directional call embedded in a consensus that simultaneously carries the widest range of any pair in the set.
USD/INR is the starkest dislocation. Spot at 95.29 runs 9.53% above the Dec-26 consensus median of 87.0. Both firms with published targets — UBS at 83.5 and Commerzbank at 96.0 — are bearish on USD/INR, meaning both expect the rupee to strengthen (or at minimum hold) against the dollar. The range of 83.5–96.0 is wide in percentage terms, but the directional consensus is unusually uniform: every named desk expects USD/INR to be lower by December. If spot does not retrace, that consensus will need a significant revision cycle.
Which Pairs Are the Desks Pushing for Carry, and Who Are the Outliers?
The carry narrative is most legible in USD/TRY and USD/BRL. Turkish lira implied yields remain among the highest in EM, and the spread between UBS's 43.5 target and ING's 56.3 reflects divergent views on whether carry will be eroded by spot depreciation — UBS is positioned for lira appreciation, ING for further weakness despite the carry buffer. The median at 50.25 implies modest depreciation from spot, suggesting the average desk sees carry as partially but not fully offsetting spot risk.
For USD/BRL, BNP Paribas at 5.7 is the most bullish-USD desk, while ING at 4.5 is the most bearish-USD. The median of 5.1 sits almost exactly at spot (5.11), making BRL the pair where carry — Brazil's Selic rate remains elevated — is the primary return driver rather than spot appreciation. Desks pushing BRL are effectively recommending a carry hold rather than a directional spot trade.
On USD/MXN, Citi at 19.2 is the most USD-bullish desk, a significant distance from StanChart's 17.0 floor. Spot at 17.14 is already near StanChart's year-end target, which implies that desk sees essentially no further MXN weakness from here. The median of 17.9 sits 4.24% above spot — the second-largest spot-to-median gap in the set after USD/INR — meaning the average desk still expects meaningful peso depreciation through December.
For USD/KRW, Citi at 1460 versus StanChart at 1280 represents a 180-won spread, reflecting divergent views on Korean export dynamics and Fed path sensitivity. Spot at 1417.99 is 2.75% above the median of 1380, suggesting the consensus leans toward modest won appreciation into year-end.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EM pair is furthest from its December 2026 consensus target?
USD/INR, where spot at 95.29 trades 9.53% above the Dec-26 median of 87.0 — the largest spot-to-consensus gap across all six pairs tracked.
Which pair has the widest disagreement among forecasting desks?
USD/TRY, with a forecast range of 43.5 (UBS) to 56.3 (ING), a spread of 12.8 handles across 18 contributing firms.
Where does consensus see the least directional risk from current spot levels?
USD/BRL and USD/ZAR, where spot is within 0.20% of the December median — 5.11 versus 5.10 and 16.20 versus 16.175 respectively.
How many firms contribute to these EM consensus panels?
Between 18 and 19 firms per pair; USD/ZAR and USD/TRY have 18 contributors, USD/MXN, USD/BRL, USD/INR, and USD/KRW each have 19.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook at Citi's forecasts page, or browse the complete EM FX consensus tracker for updated targets across all tracked pairs.
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