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As of September 11, 2026, cross-EM consensus from 20 contributing desks shows the sharpest disagreement in USD/INR and USD/TRY, while USD/BRL and USD/ZAR sit nearly at spot — leaving little directional edge in the two most liquid LatAm and Africa pairs. Spot-vs-median gaps range from +7.83% (USD/INR) to -4.92% (USD/MXN), a spread wide enough to matter for positioning.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot 95.54 trades 7.83% above the Dec-26 median of 88.6 — the largest spot-vs-consensus gap in the basket
- USD/MXN spot 16.97 sits 4.92% below the Dec-26 median of 17.85, the second-largest gap and the only pair where spot is materially below target
- USD/TRY range 43.5–56.3 (ING vs UBS) is the widest absolute dispersion in the basket
- USD/BRL spot 5.12 vs median 5.10 (+0.38%) and USD/ZAR spot 16.13 vs median 16.10 (+0.20%) — both within rounding distance of consensus
- USD/KRW spot 1341 trades 2.82% below the Dec-26 median of 1380, a mild bearish-EM lean from the consensus
- 20 firms in the panel; firm counts per pair range from 17 (ZAR, TRY, KRW) to 19 (INR)
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered (StanChart) — USD/MXN | 17.0 | bearish |
| ING — USD/BRL | 4.5 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank (DB) — USD/ZAR | 15.5 | bearish |
| UBS — USD/TRY | 43.5 | bearish |
| UBS — USD/INR | 83.5 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered (StanChart) — USD/KRW | 1280.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas (BNP) — USD/BRL | 5.7 | bearish |
| Citi — USD/ZAR | 18.0 | bullish |
| ING — USD/TRY | 56.3 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs (GS) — USD/INR | 97.0 | bearish |
| Citi — USD/KRW | 1460.0 | bullish |
| Nomura (NMR) — USD/MXN | 19.2 | bearish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL and USD/ZAR are the consensus anchors. With spot-vs-median gaps of +0.38% and +0.20% respectively, both pairs are effectively at equilibrium against the Dec-26 target. The BRL range of 4.5–5.7 (ING vs BNP Paribas) is 1.2 handles wide; the ZAR range of 15.5–18.0 (Deutsche Bank vs Citi) is 2.5 handles. Neither is tight in absolute terms, but the spot-to-median alignment means the panel is not leaning hard in either direction — a crowded neutral.
USD/TRY carries the most fractured consensus. ING's 56.3 target sits 29.4% above UBS's 43.5. Both desks are positioned around a median of 50.5, but the 12.8-handle range reflects genuine disagreement on the pace of lira depreciation through year-end. Spot at 48.60 is 3.75% below the median — a modest bearish-TRY lean from the panel, though the dispersion renders the median less informative than usual.
USD/INR is the pair where spot has moved furthest from consensus. At 95.54, the rupee has depreciated well past the Dec-26 median of 88.6 — a 7.83% gap that is the largest in the basket. The range of 83.5–97.0 (UBS vs Goldman Sachs) spans 13.5 handles. Goldman's 97.0 target, the most bullish-USD call in the INR panel, is barely above current spot, suggesting that even the most dollar-constructive desk sees limited further INR weakness from here.
Which Pairs Offer the Carry Desks Are Pushing?
USD/TRY is the carry story most desks reference, though the wide dispersion complicates the trade. With spot at 48.60 and a median target of 50.5, the consensus expects further lira depreciation — but the 43.5–56.3 range means the carry-adjusted return profile depends heavily on which depreciation path materialises. UBS's bearish stance at 43.5 implies meaningful TRY appreciation from spot, which would make the carry trade viable; ING's neutral 56.3 implies the carry is consumed by capital loss.
USD/MXN is the other carry candidate. Spot at 16.97 is 4.92% below the Dec-26 median of 17.85, meaning the consensus expects the peso to give back ground. Both desks in the panel — StanChart at 17.0 and Nomura at 19.2 — are bearish on EM FX (i.e. expect USD/MXN to rise), though StanChart's target is only marginally above spot while Nomura's 19.2 implies a 13% move. The carry on MXN remains among the highest in EM, but the consensus depreciation path erodes the net return for unhedged longs.
USD/KRW offers the least carry rationale. The won's yield advantage is thin, and with spot at 1341 against a median of 1380, the panel expects KRW to weaken modestly. StanChart's 1280 target is the outlier bullish-KRW call; Citi's 1460 is the bearish extreme. The 180-handle range on a 1341 spot is not trivial, and the pair's sensitivity to global risk appetite makes it a beta trade rather than a carry vehicle.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dec-26 consensus target for USD/INR as of September 11, 2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target for USD/INR is 88.6, based on 19 contributing desks. Spot at 95.54 sits 7.83% above that level.
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion?
USD/TRY has the widest range in the basket: 43.5 (UBS) to 56.3 (ING), a spread of 12.8 handles around a median of 50.5.
Which pairs are closest to their Dec-26 consensus targets?
USD/ZAR (+0.20% gap) and USD/BRL (+0.38% gap) are the two pairs where spot is effectively at the consensus median, leaving minimal directional signal from the aggregate.
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus panel?
Twenty firms contribute across the six pairs tracked. Individual pair panels range from 17 firms (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 firms (USD/INR).
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts for the most bullish-USD INR call in the panel, and the full EM FX forecasts page for the complete consensus dataset across all tracked pairs.
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