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As of the week of September 9, 2026, the 20-firm cross-EM consensus presents a mixed picture: USD/BRL is nearly flat to its December target, USD/INR is the sharpest outlier with spot running 7.37% above median, and dispersion is widest in pairs where structural macro narratives remain unresolved.
Key Numbers
- USD/BRL spot (5.1066) is within 0.13% of the Dec-26 median (5.10) — the tightest spot-to-consensus gap across all six pairs
- USD/INR spot (95.13) is 7.37% above the Dec-26 median (88.6) — the largest gap in the roundup
- USD/ZAR range: 15.5–18.0 (2.5 handles); USD/TRY range: 43.5–56.3 (12.8 handles) — widest dispersion in percentage terms
- USD/MXN spot (16.895) sits 5.35% below the Dec-26 median (17.85), implying consensus expects further peso softening
- Most bullish-USD on USD/INR: Goldman Sachs at 97.0; most bearish-USD: UBS at 83.5
- Most bullish-USD on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460; most bearish-USD: StanChart at 1280
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Standard Chartered · Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-09 21:08 UTC
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered (USD/MXN) | 17.0 | bearish |
| Nomura (USD/MXN) | 19.2 | bearish |
| ING (USD/BRL) | 4.5 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas (USD/BRL) | 5.7 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank (USD/ZAR) | 15.5 | bearish |
| Citi (USD/ZAR) | 18.0 | bullish |
| UBS (USD/TRY) | 43.5 | bearish |
| ING (USD/TRY) | 56.3 | neutral |
| UBS (USD/INR) | 83.5 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs (USD/INR) | 97.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered (USD/KRW) | 1280.0 | bearish |
| Citi (USD/KRW) | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL is the most crowded consensus trade in the roundup. With spot at 5.1066 and the Dec-26 median at 5.10, the 18-firm panel is effectively calling for no net move. The range of 4.5–5.7 is relatively contained, and the gap to spot is a negligible +0.13%. That compression reflects a market that has largely priced in Brazil's fiscal trajectory and the central bank's terminal rate assumptions. ING sits at the bearish-USD extreme (4.5) with a neutral stance, while BNP Paribas anchors the bullish-USD end at 5.7 with a bearish EM FX call — a 1.2-handle spread that is modest by EM standards.
USD/TRY and USD/INR carry the widest dispersion. On USD/TRY, the 17-firm panel spans 43.5 to 56.3 — a 12.8-handle range against a spot of 48.48 and a median of 50.5. UBS at 43.5 (bearish USD/TRY) implies meaningful lira appreciation from current levels, a call that rests on a continued CBRT disinflation path and real-rate normalization. ING at 56.3 (neutral) embeds a more cautious view on Turkey's external financing needs. The 4.01% gap between spot and median suggests consensus still expects moderate lira depreciation by year-end, but the range signals genuine disagreement on the pace of that move.
USD/INR dispersion is structurally different. The 19-firm panel runs from 83.5 (UBS, bearish) to 97.0 (Goldman Sachs, bearish) — both desks are bearish on USD/INR yet separated by 13.5 rupees. Spot at 95.13 sits 7.37% above the Dec-26 median of 88.6, the largest positive gap in the roundup. That configuration — spot above consensus with both outlier desks still bearish — implies the panel expects a meaningful INR recovery into year-end, a call that hinges on RBI reserve deployment, current account dynamics, and risk appetite for Asian EM.
USD/ZAR presents a binary split. Deutsche Bank at 15.5 (bearish USD) and Citi at 18.0 (bullish USD) frame a 2.5-handle range around a spot of 16.03 and a median of 16.1. The near-zero spot-to-median gap (−0.45%) masks the underlying disagreement: the ZAR outlook is hostage to South Africa's electricity supply trajectory, commodity terms of trade, and global risk sentiment — variables where desk assumptions diverge sharply.
Which Pairs Are Desks Pushing for Carry?
Carry logic is most legible in USD/TRY and USD/BRL, where nominal rate differentials remain substantial. On USD/TRY, the median Dec-26 target of 50.5 against a spot of 48.48 implies a modest 4.01% depreciation path — well inside the carry available from Turkish lira positions if the CBRT holds policy rates at current levels. Desks with bearish-USD calls on TRY (notably UBS at 43.5) are effectively arguing the carry is not only intact but that spot will overshoot in lira's favor.
USD/MXN is the other carry candidate. Spot at 16.895 is 5.35% below the Dec-26 median of 17.85, meaning consensus expects the peso to give back ground — but the 18-firm panel still spans 17.0 to 19.2. Standard Chartered at 17.0 (bearish USD) is the most constructive on the peso, implying the carry from Banxico's rate structure more than offsets depreciation risk. Nomura at 19.2 (bearish USD) sits at the other end but still within a bearish-USD framing — both desks expect the dollar to weaken against the peso, just by very different magnitudes.
USD/KRW is not a carry trade; it is a risk-proxy read. The 1280–1460 range across 17 firms reflects divergent assumptions on global trade volumes and semiconductor cycle timing rather than rate differentials. Citi at 1460 (bullish USD) and StanChart at 1280 (bearish USD) represent the cleanest risk-on/risk-off split in the roundup.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EM pair has the tightest consensus as of September 9, 2026?
USD/BRL, where spot (5.1066) is within 0.13% of the Dec-26 median (5.10) across 18 firms — the smallest spot-to-consensus gap in the six-pair roundup.
Which pair shows the most disagreement across desks?
USD/TRY carries the widest nominal range (43.5–56.3, a 12.8-handle spread across 17 firms), while USD/INR has the largest spot-vs-median gap at 7.37%.
Are any desks outright bullish on the US dollar across EM?
Citi holds bullish-USD stances on both USD/ZAR (target 18.0) and USD/KRW (target 1460.0) — the only desk in this roundup with explicit bullish-USD calls across multiple pairs.
How many firms contribute to this consensus?
The roundup draws on 20 firms in total, with individual pair panels ranging from 17 firms (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 firms (USD/INR).
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts for the desk's USD/INR target and broader EM positioning.
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