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Across the six EM pairs tracked as of September 15, 2026, cross-firm consensus sits close to neutral on the USD, with spot levels broadly in line with December 2026 median targets — except USD/INR, where spot trades 8.30% above the 19-firm median, the sharpest divergence in the basket. Dispersion is widest in USD/TRY and USD/INR, tightest in USD/BRL.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot vs. median: +8.30% — spot 95.955 against a Dec-26 median of 88.6; the largest gap in the basket
- USD/BRL: spot 5.1488 vs. median 5.10; tightest spot-to-consensus gap at +0.96%
- USD/ZAR: spot 16.2657 vs. median 16.10; gap +1.03%, range 15.5–18.0 (2.5 handles wide)
- USD/TRY: range 43.5–56.3 across 17 firms — 12.8 handles, the widest absolute dispersion
- USD/MXN: spot 17.148 vs. median 17.85; spot trades -3.93% below median, implying peso softening priced in
- USD/KRW: spot 1360.66 vs. median 1380.0; gap -1.40%, 17 firms, range 1280–1460
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Where Does Each Pair Stand Against Consensus?
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Standard Chartered · Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-15 11:07 UTC
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Table shows the highest- and lowest-target desk per pair from the tracked firm universe. Stance reflects each desk's view on the EM currency itself.
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Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL is the most crowded consensus in the basket. With spot at 5.1488 and the 18-firm median at 5.10, the gap is less than one percent. BNP Paribas sits at the top of the range with a 5.70 target (bearish EM FX), while ING anchors the low end at 4.50 with a neutral stance. That 1.20-handle spread is narrow relative to the other pairs, and with spot already close to the median, there is little directional information in the aggregate.
USD/TRY carries the widest dispersion in absolute terms: a 12.8-handle range between UBS at 43.5 (bearish) and ING at 56.3 (neutral), against a 17-firm median of 50.5. Spot at 48.64 sits 3.68% below the median, meaning the consensus still expects lira depreciation from current levels — but the spread between the most and least constructive desks is large enough that the median itself carries limited conviction. Turkish inflation dynamics and the CBRT's policy credibility remain the fault line dividing these forecasts.
USD/ZAR presents a different kind of dispersion: Citi at 18.0 (bullish USD) versus Deutsche Bank at 15.5 (bearish USD) is a 2.5-handle gap across 17 firms, with the median at 16.10 and spot at 16.2657. The pair is essentially at consensus, but the tail views are far apart — reflecting genuine disagreement on South Africa's fiscal trajectory and commodity-linked terms of trade.
USD/KRW dispersion — 180 won between Standard Chartered at 1280 and Citi at 1460 — is wide in percentage terms (roughly 14%), and spot at 1360.66 sits 1.40% below the 17-firm median of 1380. The consensus leans modestly toward won softening, but the range suggests the Korea growth and current-account story is being read very differently across desks.
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Which Pair Has the Sharpest Spot-to-Consensus Dislocation?
USD/INR is the outlier. Spot at 95.955 sits 8.30% above the 19-firm median of 88.6 — by far the largest gap in the basket. The range runs from UBS at 83.5 (bearish) to Goldman Sachs at 97.0 (bearish), and both desks are bearish on USD/INR — meaning both expect the rupee to strengthen from current levels, just at different speeds. The consensus is not split on direction; it is split on magnitude. At 95.955, spot is already near Goldman's 97.0 ceiling, implying the most USD-constructive desk in the INR panel sees almost no further upside from here. If spot is accurately reflecting current macro conditions, the 19-firm median at 88.6 looks stale or the consensus is pricing a significant RBI-driven rupee recovery that has not yet materialized.
USD/MXN also deserves attention: spot at 17.148 is 3.93% below the 18-firm median of 17.85, meaning the consensus expects the peso to weaken from here. Standard Chartered at 17.0 is the most peso-constructive desk; Nomura at 19.2 is the most bearish on the peso — both carrying a bearish EM FX stance, but with a 2.2-handle gap between them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion as of September 15, 2026?
USD/TRY, where the range across 17 firms spans 43.5 to 56.3 — a 12.8-handle spread — with the median at 50.5.
Where does spot trade most aggressively against the consensus median?
USD/INR: spot at 95.955 is 8.30% above the 19-firm median of 88.6, the largest spot-to-consensus gap in the six-pair basket.
Which pair has the tightest consensus and smallest spot gap?
USD/BRL, with spot at 5.1488 against an 18-firm median of 5.10 — a gap of +0.96% and a range of just 4.5 to 5.7.
How many firms contribute to this cross-EM consensus?
Coverage ranges from 17 firms (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 firms (USD/INR), with 18 firms each on USD/MXN and USD/BRL — 20 firms in the broader panel.
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→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook, including the USD/INR 97.0 December target, at Goldman Sachs forecasts. For the complete cross-EM forecast database across all tracked pairs, visit fxbankforecast.com/forecasts.
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