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Consensus across six EM pairs as of October 10, 2026 shows the broadest spot-versus-median gap in USD/INR (+9.18%), while USD/MXN and USD/ZAR sit modestly above their December-2026 medians and USD/BRL, USD/TRY, and USD/KRW trade below theirs. The 20-firm panel spans 17–19 contributors per pair, with dispersion widest in USD/INR and USD/TRY.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot (96.73) trades 9.18% above the Dec-26 median of 88.6 — the largest spot-consensus gap in the roundup
- USD/MXN spot (18.41) is 3.74% above the Dec-26 median of 17.75; USD/ZAR spot (16.51) is 2.54% above its median of 16.1
- USD/BRL spot (4.98) sits 2.41% below the Dec-26 median of 5.1; USD/KRW spot (1,340.9) is 2.83% below its median of 1,380
- USD/TRY spot (49.34) is 2.29% below the Dec-26 median of 50.5, with the widest absolute range in the set (43.5–56.3)
- Most bearish-USD on INR: UBS at 83.5; most bullish-USD: Goldman Sachs at 97.0
- Most bearish-USD on MXN: Standard Chartered at 17.0; most bullish-USD: Nomura at 19.2
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered (USD/MXN) | 17.0 | bearish |
| ING (USD/BRL) | 4.5 | neutral |
| UBS (USD/TRY) | 43.5 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank (USD/ZAR) | 15.5 | bearish |
| UBS (USD/INR) | 83.5 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered (USD/KRW) | 1280.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas (USD/BRL) | 5.7 | bearish |
| ING (USD/TRY) | 56.3 | neutral |
| Citi (USD/ZAR) | 18.0 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs (USD/INR) | 97.0 | bearish |
| Citi (USD/KRW) | 1460.0 | bullish |
| Nomura (USD/MXN) | 19.2 | bearish |
Where is consensus most crowded, and where is dispersion widest?
USD/MXN is the most consensus-dense pair in the roundup: 18 firms, a range of only 2.2 figures (17.0–19.2), and both outlier desks — Nomura at 19.2 and Standard Chartered at 17.0 — carry bearish stances on the USD, meaning the disagreement is about degree, not direction. Spot at 18.41 sits 3.74% above the 17.75 median, so the panel as a whole expects peso appreciation into year-end, with the only debate being how far.
USD/INR and USD/TRY carry the widest dispersion. On INR, the 13.5-figure range (83.5–97.0) between UBS and Goldman Sachs is exceptional for a managed-float currency; both desks are formally bearish on the USD yet separated by nearly 16% in implied rupee outcomes. The 12.8-figure TRY range (43.5–56.3) between UBS and ING reflects genuine disagreement about the pace of TCMB disinflation and lira stabilisation — UBS bearish on USD, ING neutral. USD/ZAR shows the starkest directional split: Citi at 18.0 (bullish USD) versus Deutsche Bank at 15.5 (bearish USD), a 2.5-figure gap that straddles the 16.1 median and the 16.51 spot almost symmetrically.
Which pairs are the desks pushing for carry, and does spot support the trade?
The carry argument is most explicit in USD/TRY and USD/BRL, the two pairs where spot currently trades below the Dec-26 consensus median — meaning the panel expects further USD appreciation against both currencies by year-end, which would erode carry returns for long-EM positions. That creates a tension the desks are navigating differently.
On TRY, the 50.5 median implies roughly 2.3% additional lira depreciation from the 49.34 spot. The spread between ING's neutral 56.3 and UBS's bearish-USD 43.5 is the widest in the set in percentage terms, suggesting carry-versus-depreciation risk is the live debate. On BRL, BNP Paribas at 5.7 (bearish on EM FX, i.e. bullish USD) and ING at 4.5 (neutral) bracket a 5.1 median; spot at 4.98 is 2.41% below that median, implying the panel expects the real to weaken modestly — a headwind to carry unless Brazilian rates remain sufficiently elevated to compensate.
USD/KRW is the only pair where spot (1,340.9) is below the median (1,380) and where the bullish-USD outlier — Citi at 1,460 — is materially above both. Korea's export-cycle sensitivity makes KRW carry less of a primary motivation; the pair is more a risk-sentiment proxy than a carry vehicle in this panel.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the cross-EM consensus for December 2026?
The 20-firm panel's pair-by-pair Dec-26 medians are: USD/MXN 17.75, USD/BRL 5.1, USD/ZAR 16.1, USD/TRY 50.5, USD/INR 88.6, and USD/KRW 1,380. No single cross-EM aggregate median is published; the pair-level figures above are the operative consensus.
Which EM pair has the largest spot-versus-consensus gap right now?
USD/INR, where spot at 96.73 is 9.18% above the Dec-26 median of 88.6 — by far the largest dislocation in the roundup. The next largest is USD/MXN at +3.74%.
Where do the most bearish-USD and most bullish-USD desks diverge most sharply?
USD/INR shows the sharpest intra-pair divergence: UBS at 83.5 versus Goldman Sachs at 97.0, a 13.5-figure range across 19 contributing firms. USD/TRY is second with a 12.8-figure range between UBS at 43.5 and ING at 56.3.
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
The panel comprises 20 firms in total, with per-pair coverage ranging from 17 (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 (USD/INR). USD/MXN and USD/BRL each draw 18 contributors.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook, including its 97.0 Dec-26 USD/INR target and broader EM views, at Goldman Sachs forecasts. For the complete multi-firm consensus table across all tracked pairs, visit FX Bank Forecast EM coverage.
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