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Q1 2026 produced 452 scored forecasts across 21 banks and 11 markets, and a pooled direction hit rate of 60% — a coin-flip with a slight tailwind. The spread ran from the tidy to the catastrophic.
The FX pairs were where banks earned their keep; the commodities were where they lost it. Gold and WTI generated misses an order of magnitude larger than anything in the currency book, and no amount of accuracy on USD/CAD offset a 30% whiff on crude.
The Q1 2026 leaderboard
Nomura took the accuracy crown with a 1.40% average absolute error, but RBC Capital Markets was the direction machine of the quarter: 88% hits across 16 forecasts, second only on error at 1.47%. Note the tail — Commerzbank called direction right just 25% of the time, and Goldman Sachs posted a 4.25% average error across 35 scored forecasts.
| Rank | Bank | Avg. error | Direction hit rate | Forecasts scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nomura | 1.40% | 75% | 16 |
| 2 | RBC Capital Markets | 1.47% | 88% | 16 |
| 3 | Mizuho | 1.92% | 69% | 16 |
| 4 | Société Générale | 1.93% | 56% | 16 |
| 5 | MUFG | 2.12% | 44% | 32 |
| 6 | BNP Paribas | 2.26% | 56% | 16 |
| 7 | ING | 2.48% | 63% | 32 |
| 8 | Standard Chartered | 2.93% | 63% | 16 |
| 9 | Commerzbank | 2.95% | 25% | 16 |
| 10 | Goldman Sachs | 4.25% | 60% | 35 |
Ranked by average absolute error across all Q1 2026-dated forecasts; minimum three scored forecasts to qualify.
Closest call in every market
Per market, the closest calls tell you where the consensus had a read and where it didn't. USD/CAD and USD/BRL saw market hit rates of 88% and 92%; EUR/USD and USD/JPY both landed at 19%, meaning the field was mostly on the wrong side. The commodities were another planet entirely — the closest WTI call still missed by 30.00%, and the closest gold call by 35.99%.
| Market | Closest call | Their target | Where it settled | Miss | Banks graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | CBK | 0.68 | 0.6855 | 0.80% | 18 |
| EUR/USD | BNP | 1.16 | 1.1518 | 0.71% | 18 |
| GBP/USD | Citi | 1.32 | 1.3184 | 0.12% | 18 |
| NZD/USD | MUFG | 0.57 | 0.571 | 0.18% | 18 |
| USD/CAD | NMR | 1.40 | 1.3953 | 0.34% | 18 |
| USD/CHF | BARC | 0.80 | 0.8027 | 0.34% | 18 |
| USD/JPY | StanChart | 160.00 | 159.08 | 0.58% | 18 |
| USD/CNY | ING | 6.95 | 6.898 | 0.75% | 18 |
| USD/BRL | DB | 5.28 | 5.2115 | 1.31% | 18 |
| WTI | GS | 72.00 | 102.86 | 30.00% | 12 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | HSBC | 2950.00 | 4608.35 | 35.99% | 12 |
Call of the quarter
Citi called GBP/USD at 1.32 (published 2025-12-09); it settled at 1.3184 — a 0.12% miss.
Miss of the quarter
Morgan Stanley called Gold (XAU/USD) at 2850.00 (published 2026-01-20); it settled at 4608.35 — a 38.16% miss.
Who leads, who follows
Accuracy is only half the grade — the other half is whether a desk thinks for itself. For every pair of forecast revisions on the same currency and target quarter, a desk either led (a peer moved the same direction within the next four weeks), followed (it moved after a peer already had), or went contra (opposite direction within two weeks). The herding index is the share of follows — the classic career-concern pattern where being wrong with everyone beats being wrong alone. Rolling 18 months, all pairs.
| Desk | Herding index | Leads | Follows | Contras | Interactions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | 83% | 1 | 24 | 4 | 29 |
| Danske Bank | 51% | 4 | 22 | 17 | 43 |
| Goldman Sachs | 43% | 17 | 28 | 20 | 65 |
| Morgan Stanley | 37% | 12 | 20 | 22 | 54 |
| UBS | 35% | 12 | 20 | 25 | 57 |
| Bank of America | 27% | 54 | 44 | 63 | 161 |
| MUFG | 18% | 21 | 9 | 21 | 51 |
| Deutsche Bank | 17% | 22 | 9 | 21 | 52 |
| ING | 17% | 50 | 18 | 37 | 105 |
| HSBC | 15% | 18 | 5 | 11 | 34 |
| RBC Capital Markets | 5% | 17 | 2 | 21 | 40 |
A low index is not automatically good — a desk can lead the pack in the wrong direction. Read it against the leaderboard above.
What it means
The dispersion here is the whole story. A bank that topped a currency pair could still be the name attached to the worst miss elsewhere — Nomura led on error and owned the closest USD/CAD call, while Goldman Sachs sat mid-table and also posted the closest WTI call at a 30.00% miss. Rank tells you little market by market.
For anyone consuming bank forecasts, the lesson is to grade by market, not by masthead. A 60% pooled direction rate flatters no one, and the gap between an 88% hit rate on USD/CAD and a 19% hit rate on EUR/USD means the same research desk can be indispensable in one pair and noise in the next.
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Scored against realized values at each forecast's target date. Live per-bank accuracy, updated daily, is on the track record and each bank's forecast page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which bank had the best forecasting record in Q1 2026?
Nomura posted the lowest average absolute error at 1.40% over 16 forecasts, while RBC Capital Markets led on direction with an 88% hit rate.
What was the single most accurate forecast of the quarter?
Citi's GBP/USD call, which missed by just 0.12%.
How badly did commodity forecasts perform?
The closest WTI call missed by 30.00% and the closest gold call by 35.99%, with Morgan Stanley's gold forecast the worst single call at a 38.16% miss.
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