On this page · 5 sections▾
GBP/USD sits at 1.3516 as of the week of September 5, 2026, roughly 0.62% below the 21-firm median year-end target of 1.36 — a narrow gap that masks a 0.26-point dispersion across the full GBP/USD bank forecast table, the widest in several quarters.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 5, 2026): 1.3516
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 1.36
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.26 across 21 firms
- Gap vs spot: −0.62% (spot trades below consensus)
- Most bullish: UBS at 1.50
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.24
Firm Forecasts — December 2026
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.24 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.28 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.30 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 1.33 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.33 | bullish |
| ING | 1.35 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.36 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.36 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 1.37 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.37 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.40 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.42 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.47 | bullish |
| UBS | 1.50 | bullish |
Which Desks See BoE Cutting Faster Than the Fed — and What Does That Mean for Their Targets?
Cable is the canonical UK growth-versus-rates trade at this point in the cycle. The central question for any year-end target is whether the Bank of England eases more aggressively than the Federal Reserve, compressing the rate differential that has supported sterling through 2025 and into 2026.
Citi sits at the bearish extreme with a 1.24 target, the only outright bearish stance in the table. The desk's thesis rests on BoE front-loading cuts relative to the Fed — a view that UK growth disappoints sufficiently to force the MPC's hand before the FOMC moves with comparable urgency. At 1.24, Citi prices in roughly an 8-point sterling discount to current spot, a call that requires both a material UK slowdown and a Fed that holds rates higher for longer than markets currently price.
J.P. Morgan presents a notable internal tension: a 1.28 target that sits well below spot, yet a stance classified as bullish on the pair. The desk appears to be expressing a relative view — bullish sterling against a broader basket while still seeing cable drift lower on dollar resilience. JPM's narrative aligns with those who see the DXY finding a floor as Fed rate expectations stabilise; the DXY has been the dominant macro overlay for cable since mid-2025, and any reversal of dollar softness compresses the upside even for sterling bulls.
On the other side, UBS raised its target from 1.35 to 1.50 — a move that places it 14 cents above the median and 15 cents above spot. The UBS view requires the Fed to cut materially faster than the BoE, a scenario in which US growth underperforms and the dollar unwinds its 2025 gains. Morgan Stanley at 1.47 and Deutsche Bank at 1.42 occupy the next tier of optimism, both implying the rate-differential trade resolves in sterling's favour by December.
Why Is Dispersion So Wide at 0.26 Points?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Citi · JPMorgan · Nomura · Creditagricole +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-05 21:06 UTC
A 0.26-point spread across 21 firms is unusually large for a G10 pair at this stage of the forecast horizon. Three structural factors explain it.
First, the BoE's reaction function is genuinely uncertain. UK inflation has proven stickier than the MPC projected through the first half of 2026, but growth data has softened. Desks disagree on which variable dominates — those prioritising inflation stickiness (UBS, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank) hold higher targets; those prioritising growth deterioration (Citi, Crédit Agricole) sit at the low end.
Second, DXY trajectory assumptions diverge sharply. The dollar index has been under pressure since late 2025 on Fed pivot expectations, but the pace and durability of that move is contested. Firms that model a sustained DXY decline embed higher cable targets mechanically. MUFG at 1.40 and Bank of America at 1.37 represent the middle ground — constructive on sterling but not pricing in a full dollar unwind.
Third, geopolitical and trade-flow assumptions vary. Post-Brexit trade normalisation has been a slow-moving tailwind for sterling; desks differ on how much of that is already in the price versus still to accrue by year-end.
Société Générale at 1.33 with a bullish stance illustrates how stance and target can appear to conflict: the desk is directionally positive on sterling but targets a level below spot, suggesting a near-term dip before recovery — a sequencing call rather than a structural bearish view.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does GBP/USD consensus stand as of September 5, 2026?
The 21-firm median December 2026 target is 1.36, against a live spot of 1.3516 — a gap of approximately 0.62%, with the implied consensus bias bullish.
What is the range of bank forecasts for GBP/USD by year-end 2026?
Dispersion across all 21 firms in the consensus is 0.26 points, spanning from Citi's 1.24 floor to UBS's 1.50 ceiling.
Which bank has the most bullish GBP/USD forecast for December 2026?
UBS holds the highest target at 1.50, raised from a prior 1.35, implying roughly 10.9% upside from the desk's reference spot — the most aggressive call in the 21-firm panel.
Is the broader dollar index relevant to the cable outlook?
DXY direction is the dominant overlay: desks modelling sustained dollar weakness (UBS, Morgan Stanley) embed the highest cable targets, while those expecting DXY stabilisation or recovery (Citi, J.P. Morgan) sit at or below current spot.
→ See the full UBS FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1.50 target and the assumptions driving the most bullish call in the current GBP/USD consensus.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Creditagricole →
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Continue tracking GBP/USD
More from GBP/USD
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.36 Target, 0.26 Spread — Week of September 7, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3537 with 21-firm consensus at 1.36, but a 0.26 max-min dispersion signals deep disagreement on the BoE-vs-Fed easing path.
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.36 Target, 0.26 Spread — Week of September 6, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3516, just 0.62% below the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, but a 0.26 dispersion signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3533, Median 1.35 — Week of September 4, 2026
Cable trades within 0.24% of the 21-bank median Dec-26 target of 1.35, masking a 0.23-figure spread from Citi's 1.24 to Morgan Stanley's 1.47.
Share