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GBP/USD sits at 1.3516 as of September 6, 2026, roughly 0.62% below the cross-firm median year-end target of 1.36 — a narrow gap that masks a 0.26 range between the most and least constructive desks tracked in the full GBP/USD bank forecast table.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 6, 2026): 1.3516
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 21 firms): 1.36
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.26
- Gap vs spot: −0.62% (spot trades below consensus)
- Most bullish: UBS at 1.50
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.24
Firm Forecasts — December 2026
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.24 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.28 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.30 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 1.33 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.33 | bullish |
| ING | 1.35 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.36 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.36 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 1.37 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.37 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.40 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.42 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.47 | bullish |
| UBS | 1.50 | bullish |
Which Desks Price Faster BoE Cuts Than Fed Cuts — and What Does That Do to Their Targets?
Cable's identity as a relative-rates trade is well established. The disagreement is not about direction per se — the 21-firm consensus leans bullish — but about the sequencing and depth of BoE easing relative to the Fed.
Desks that expect the Bank of England to cut more aggressively than the Federal Reserve through year-end tend to cluster in the 1.24–1.33 range. Citi sits at the bearish extreme with a 1.24 target, pricing a scenario where UK growth disappoints and the MPC accelerates its easing cycle faster than the Fed can match. J.P. Morgan carries a 1.28 target — technically bullish on the pair label, but the level itself implies a 5.4% decline from spot, reflecting a view that UK rate support erodes faster than the dollar's. Crédit Agricole at 1.30 holds a neutral stance but similarly embeds a BoE-cuts-first narrative into its model.
At the other end, desks pricing a shallower or slower BoE easing path — or a more aggressive Fed pivot — arrive at materially higher cable targets. UBS raised its target from 1.3500 to 1.50, the highest in the consensus, embedding a view that the Fed moves faster and deeper than the BoE, compressing the rate differential in sterling's favour. Morgan Stanley at 1.47 and Deutsche Bank at 1.42 occupy similar territory. MUFG at 1.40 rounds out the bullish cluster, pricing approximately 4.8% upside from its reference spot.
The 0.26 dispersion across all 21 firms is wide relative to cable's typical forecast spread. It reflects genuine uncertainty about which central bank blinks first — not noise.
Where Does DXY Fit, and What Does Spot Positioning Against Consensus Signal?
CFTC speculator net position over 52 weeks, with 5-year percentile bands. GBP net at 47,909 sits in the 98th percentile of the 5y range.
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders
as of 2026-09-06 06:04 UTC
Cable does not move in isolation. The DXY context matters: a broad dollar softening cycle compresses cable's downside across the board and explains why even the more cautious desks — Rabobank at 1.33, ING at 1.35 — are not calling for a sharp sterling collapse. The consensus bias across 21 firms is bullish, meaning the modal view is that DXY weakness persists into year-end and provides a floor under cable even if the BoE cuts.
Spot at 1.3516 is 0.62% below the median 1.36 target. That gap is small enough to suggest the market has largely pre-traded the consensus view. Cable is not deeply mispriced relative to the median — it is running roughly in line. The implication: the pair's next directional move is more likely to come from a repricing of the rate path than from a simple convergence to consensus. If UK data deteriorates and the MPC signals a faster easing sequence, the Citi and JPM targets at 1.24–1.28 become the relevant gravitational pull. If the Fed pivots more decisively, UBS at 1.50 and Morgan Stanley at 1.47 come into view.
No fresh macro catalysts hit the tape in the seven days through September 6. The consensus is effectively in a holding pattern, waiting on the next BoE and Fed meeting signals to resolve the sequencing debate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the GBP/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median target across 21 banks is 1.36, roughly 0.62% above spot of 1.3516 as of September 6, 2026. The consensus bias is bullish.
Which bank has the highest GBP/USD target for year-end 2026?
UBS holds the highest target at 1.50, recently raised from 1.3500, implying approximately 10.9% upside from its reference spot level.
Which bank is most bearish on GBP/USD?
Citi carries the lowest Dec-26 target at 1.24, a bearish stance that embeds faster BoE cuts relative to the Fed and meaningful downside from current spot.
How wide is the disagreement across banks on cable?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest targets across all 21 firms — stands at 0.26, a range that reflects substantive disagreement on the BoE-Fed easing sequencing rather than minor model variation.
→ See the full UBS FX outlook for the rationale behind the most aggressive year-end cable call in the current consensus.
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