On this page · 4 sections▾
GBP/USD sits at 1.3378 as of the week of October 25, 2026 — 0.91% below the cross-firm median December-2026 target of 1.35 drawn from the full GBP/USD bank forecast table. The 20-firm panel spans a 0.26-point range, the widest dispersion in the G10 consensus this quarter, reflecting genuine disagreement on the relative pace of BoE and Fed easing.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Oct 25, 2026): 1.3378
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 (median, 20 firms): 1.35
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.26
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.91% (spot well below)
- Most bullish: UBS at 1.50
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.24
Where Does Each Desk Stand on Cable Into Year-End?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.24 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.28 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.30 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.33 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.33 | neutral |
| ING | 1.35 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.36 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 1.37 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.344 | neutral |
| Scotiabank | 1.3675 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.40 | bullish |
| Barclays | 1.41 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.42 | bullish |
| UBS | 1.50 | bullish |
Which Desks See the BoE Cutting Faster Than the Fed, and What Does That Mean for Their Targets?
The central fault line in the Cable consensus is the sequencing of BoE versus Fed easing. Desks that model the BoE front-running the Fed on cuts — and therefore compressing the UK-US rate differential more aggressively — tend to cluster at the lower end of the target range. Citi at 1.24 is the clearest expression of this view: the desk prices in a BoE that moves in larger increments than the Fed through Q4 2026, eroding the yield support that has underpinned Cable through mid-year. Crédit Agricole at 1.30 and J.P. Morgan at 1.28 — notably bullish on the pair label yet carrying a sub-spot target — share the premise that UK disinflation is running ahead of the US, giving the MPC room and political cover to ease more decisively. The JPM target is a structural anomaly in the table: the desk is flagged bullish on GBP/USD as a directional stance but its 1.28 year-end level sits 4.5 big figures below spot, implying the bullish label reflects a relative view within its broader EM and G10 book rather than an outright long Cable recommendation.
On the other side, UBS at 1.50 and Deutsche Bank at 1.42 anchor the top of the range on the thesis that the Fed is the more aggressive cutter — that US growth has decelerated enough to push the FOMC into a sustained easing cycle while the BoE remains cautious on services inflation. Under that scenario, the UK-US two-year spread widens in sterling's favour and Cable re-rates toward the mid-1.40s. MUFG at 1.40 and Barclays at 1.41 occupy similar territory, both citing a Fed that has more ground to cover on cuts than the BoE does.
How Does DXY Positioning Shape the Dispersion?
The 0.26-point spread across 20 firms is not purely a Cable story — it is partly a DXY story. Broad dollar weakness has been the dominant macro theme through Q3 2026, with DXY drifting lower as US real rates compressed. Desks with the most constructive DXY views — those that see the dollar stabilising or recovering on safe-haven demand or a Fed pause — tend to produce the lower Cable targets. Société Générale at 1.33 is illustrative: despite carrying a bullish stance on the pair, its target is marginally below spot, consistent with a house view that DXY finds a floor before year-end. Rabobank at 1.33 neutral echoes that positioning.
Conversely, the 1.40-plus targets from UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays embed a continued DXY downtrend — one where the dollar index revisits multi-year lows as the Fed's cutting cycle deepens and US exceptionalism fades as a market narrative. That is a high-conviction call, and the 0.26-point dispersion reflects the market's genuine uncertainty about whether that narrative survives contact with Q4 US data.
Spot at 1.3378 sits 0.91% below the median target, a gap that is directionally bullish in aggregate but narrow enough that it does not represent a strong consensus signal. The implied bias is bullish, but the distribution is skewed: a handful of high-conviction longs at 1.40–1.50 pull the mean above the median, while the cluster of neutral desks between 1.33 and 1.37 suggests the modal view is closer to range-trading than trend-following.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current GBP/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median target across 20 banks is 1.35, versus a live spot of 1.3378 as of October 25, 2026 — a gap of approximately 0.91%.
How wide is the disagreement between banks on Cable?
Dispersion — measured as the difference between the highest and lowest year-end targets — stands at 0.26, with UBS at 1.50 and Citi at 1.24 defining the extremes.
Is the overall bank consensus bullish or bearish on GBP/USD?
The implied consensus bias is bullish: spot trades below the median target, and the majority of the 20 firms in the panel carry bullish or neutral stances on the pair.
Which bank has the most bullish Cable target right now?
UBS holds the highest year-end target in the panel at 1.50, implying roughly 12 big figures of upside from current spot levels.
→ See the full UBS FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1.50 Cable target and how it fits within the desk's broader G10 dollar view.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Uob →
Bank Forecast
Scotiabank →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Barclays →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Rabobank →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Creditagricole →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Continue tracking GBP/USD
More from GBP/USD
- GBP/USD
Bank of England Rate Decision Preview — October 29, 2026: What the Street Expects
GBP/USD trades 0.91% below the 20-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.35, with a 0.26-point dispersion that widens the BoE reaction map considerably.
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD Consensus Check: Week of October 24, 2026
Cable sits 0.91% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects a live BoE-vs-Fed rate path debate.
- GBP/USD
GBP/USD: Consensus Targets 1.35 but Citi-UBS Gap Spans 0.26
Cable sits 0.91% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.26 dispersion reflecting sharply divided BoE-vs-Fed rate path bets.
Share