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USD/JPY sits at 157.052 as of the week of September 28, 2026, roughly 1.98% above the cross-firm median December 2026 target of 154.0 — consult the full USD/JPY bank forecast table for the complete 24-firm breakdown. The 25.5-figure dispersion between the highest and lowest published targets is the dominant feature of this consensus: the range spans more than the pair's average annual realised range, reflecting genuine disagreement on how aggressively the Bank of Japan will tighten and how quickly US 10-year yields will retrace.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 28, 2026): 157.052
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 154.0
- Dispersion (max − min, 24 firms): 25.5 figures
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −1.98% (spot well above median target)
- Most bullish firm: Nomura — Dec-26 target 165.5
- Most bearish firm: Scotiabank — Dec-26 target 140.0
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | 140.0 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 145.0 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas | 148.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 149.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 150.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 152.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 152.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 156.6 | bearish |
| UOB | 158.4 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 159.0 | bearish |
| Crédit Agricole | 160.0 | neutral |
| UBS | 160.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 160.0 | bearish |
| Mizuho | 162.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/JPY Trade Above the Consensus Target?
The 1.98% premium of spot over the 154.0 median reflects a rate-spread regime that has not yet shifted in the direction most desks anticipated. The implied consensus bias is bearish on the pair — meaning the majority of the 24 firms in the panel expect USD/JPY to fall from current levels by year-end. That call rests on two pillars: a BoJ that continues to normalise policy beyond its initial hikes, compressing the JGB-UST spread from the Japanese side; and US 10-year yields that ease as the Federal Reserve's cutting cycle matures.
Neither leg has delivered cleanly. BoJ communication has remained cautious, with the board reluctant to pre-commit to a pace of hikes that would materially shift carry economics. Meanwhile, US 10-year yields have proven stickier than the bearish USD/JPY camp modelled, sustained by resilient US growth data and a term premium that has not compressed as rapidly as expected. The net effect: spot has remained anchored above 155 for much of the third quarter, and the consensus median has been left behind.
Intervention thresholds remain a latent constraint. Japanese authorities have historically shown tolerance for gradual yen depreciation but have acted when moves become disorderly or velocity accelerates. The 160 handle — cited by Crédit Agricole, UBS, and Société Générale as their year-end target — sits close to levels that previously triggered Ministry of Finance action. A sustained push toward that zone would likely prompt verbal intervention at minimum.
Where Is Forecast Dispersion Widest, and What Does It Signal?
At 25.5 figures, the max-to-min spread across the 24-firm panel is exceptionally wide. Nomura anchors the bullish extreme at 165.5, embedding a scenario in which US yields stay elevated and BoJ tightening remains shallow — a world where carry demand for the dollar persists through year-end. Scotiabank sits at the opposite pole with a 140.0 target, a level that would require either a sharp BoJ acceleration, a material US growth disappointment driving yields lower, or both.
The cluster between 148 and 160 contains the bulk of the panel. BNP Paribas at 148.0 and Bank of America at 149.0 represent the more aggressive bearish calls within the mainstream, both pricing a scenario where the UST-JGB 10-year spread narrows by 40–60 basis points from current levels. J.P. Morgan at 156.6 is the most cautious of the bearish-stance desks, implying only marginal downside from spot — a view consistent with a Fed that cuts slowly and a BoJ that hikes once more but signals a pause.
The wide dispersion is not noise. It reflects a genuine fork in the macro path: the pair's trajectory by December depends almost entirely on whether the BoJ delivers one or two additional hikes and whether the 10-year UST yield settles closer to 3.80% or 4.40%. Those two variables alone account for the bulk of the 25.5-point range.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/JPY spot rate as of September 28, 2026?
USD/JPY trades at 157.052 as of the week of September 28, 2026, placing spot approximately 1.98% above the 24-firm median December 2026 consensus target of 154.0.
Which bank has the highest USD/JPY forecast for December 2026?
Nomura holds the most bullish published target in the 24-firm panel at 165.5, implying the pair rises a further 5.4% from current spot levels by year-end.
Which bank has the lowest USD/JPY forecast for December 2026?
Scotiabank carries the most bearish target at 140.0, a level that would represent an 11% decline from current spot and would likely require a materially faster BoJ tightening cycle than the market currently prices.
How wide is the disagreement across banks covering USD/JPY?
Dispersion across the full 24-firm consensus stands at 25.5 figures — the difference between the 165.5 top target and the 140.0 floor — reflecting deep disagreement on the pace of BoJ normalisation and the trajectory of US 10-year yields through year-end.
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→ See the full J.P. Morgan FX outlook for their updated USD/JPY framework and rate-spread assumptions.
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