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USD/KRW spot sits at 1412.23 as of the week of August 17, 2026, some 2.34% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380 — a gap that reflects residual dollar strength against a won that most desks still expect to recover by year-end; the full USD/KRW bank forecast table shows an 18-firm panel with a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive targets.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 17, 2026): 1412.23
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Gap vs spot: 2.34% above consensus — tape is well above the median target
- Most bullish on USD/KRW (highest target): Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW (lowest target): StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
Why does USD/KRW trade above consensus when most desks are bearish on the pair?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks in the published table carry a bearish USD/KRW stance, yet spot at 1412.23 remains 2.34% above the Dec-26 median. The gap is a timing artefact as much as a forecast error: the consensus embeds a Fed easing trajectory that has been slower to materialise than models assumed at the time targets were set. The Bank of Korea has held policy rates cautiously, reluctant to widen the rate differential further while the won remains under pressure from a soft Chinese demand impulse. Until the Fed delivers enough cuts to shift the rate-differential calculus, the won's recovery path stays compressed. Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank, both at 1380, are effectively pricing a clean convergence to consensus — a move of roughly 32 points from current spot — contingent on two to three Fed cuts landing before December. J.P. Morgan at 1440 is less sanguine, sitting only 28 points below spot and reflecting a view that BoK-Fed divergence narrows more slowly than the median assumes.
Where is dispersion widest and what drives the outlier positions?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-17 11:05 UTC
The 180-point spread between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is unusually wide for a G20 EM pair at a five-month horizon, and the source of disagreement maps cleanly onto three variables: the Fed terminal rate, the semiconductor export cycle, and China beta.
Citi's 1460 target — the only outright bullish USD/KRW call in the published set — prices a Fed that pauses longer than consensus expects, keeping the dollar bid and limiting BoK room to ease. Citi also applies a more cautious read on Korea's semiconductor export recovery; if HBM and advanced DRAM demand from hyperscalers peaks earlier than the cycle consensus assumes, the current-account tailwind that most bearish desks rely on weakens materially.
At the other end, UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 are pricing an aggressive Fed easing path combined with a China stabilisation that lifts Korean export volumes through H2. Both desks treat the semiconductor upcycle as durable and assign a higher probability to Beijing's fiscal stimulus translating into genuine import demand — a China-beta assumption that, if wrong, would leave their targets looking stretched. Morgan Stanley at 1360 occupies the middle ground of the bearish camp, pricing moderate Fed cuts and a semiconductor cycle that supports the current account without requiring a China demand surge.
How does the BoK-Fed path anchor the range of outcomes?
The rate differential is the dominant near-term driver. The BoK has kept its base rate on hold through mid-2026, constrained by won weakness and household debt dynamics. The Fed's pace of cuts — and whether the FOMC signals a September move — determines how quickly that differential compresses. Desks with targets below 1360, including Deutsche Bank at 1350 and Bank of America at 1370, are effectively pricing two or more Fed cuts by December alongside at least one BoK cut in Q4 that the market has not fully priced. Nomura at 1370 adds a Korea-specific overlay: a pickup in semiconductor shipment values that strengthens the trade surplus and gives the BoK cover to ease without triggering further won depreciation. ING at 1425, the only neutral stance in the table, reflects a view that the BoK-Fed gap closes more slowly and that China's demand recovery remains uneven — a positioning that keeps USD/KRW range-bound rather than trending lower.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate as of August 17, 2026?
Spot USD/KRW is 1412.23 as of the week of August 17, 2026, which is 2.34% above the 18-firm cross-desk Dec-26 consensus median of 1380.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast for end-2026?
Citi carries the highest published target at 1460, the only outright bullish USD/KRW call in the consensus, reflecting a slower Fed easing path and a more cautious semiconductor cycle view.
How wide is the dispersion across bank forecasts?
The spread between the most bullish and most bearish Dec-26 targets is 180 points — Citi at 1460 on the high end and StanChart at 1280 on the low end — an unusually wide range driven by divergent assumptions on Fed timing, Korea's export cycle, and China demand.
What does the consensus imply for the won by year-end?
The median Dec-26 target of 1380 implies USD/KRW falling roughly 32 points from current spot, a move consistent with a modest won recovery — but the bias is only realised if the Fed delivers cuts and Korea's semiconductor exports sustain the current-account surplus through Q4.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 year-end target and how it diverges from the 18-firm panel consensus.
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