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AUD/USD spot sits at 0.7048 as of August 5, 2026 — marginally above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.70 — with the full AUD/USD bank forecast table showing a 0.10 figure spread between the most and least constructive desks. The implied consensus bias is bearish at current levels, though the dispersion is wide enough that calling a clean directional read is premature.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 5, 2026): 0.7048
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 24 firms): 0.70
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.10 (0.65–0.75)
- Gap vs consensus: spot is 0.69% above the median target
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Firm Forecasts — December 2026
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 0.67 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.6835 | neutral |
| TMGM | 0.69 | neutral |
| Danske Bank | 0.69 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| HSBC | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| Nomura | 0.72 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
Why Does AUD/USD Trade Above the Consensus Median?
The 0.69% premium spot commands over the Dec-26 median reflects a market that has already priced a more benign RBA-Fed rate-spread trajectory than most sell-side models embed. The RBA has moved more cautiously than the Fed on easing, and that residual carry advantage — however compressed — has kept AUD supported through mid-year. Desks sitting at 0.70 or below, including Citi at 0.67 and UOB at 0.6835, price a scenario where the Fed holds rates higher for longer relative to the RBA's eventual easing pace, eroding the spread that currently underpins the pair.
On the commodity side, iron-ore beta remains a live variable. AUD/USD has historically tracked the SGX iron-ore front contract with a 60-day rolling correlation above 0.5 in trending regimes. A China growth outlook that continues to disappoint — particularly on fixed-asset investment and steel demand — would pressure that beta channel and pull AUD toward the lower half of the consensus range. Desks with sub-0.69 targets are explicitly pricing a China demand shortfall; those at 0.72–0.75 assume a partial recovery in Chinese industrial activity lifts bulk commodity prices enough to offset any Fed-RBA spread compression.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and What Rate Regimes Do They Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · Société Générale · JPMorgan +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-05 06:05 UTC
The 0.10 dispersion — from Mizuho at 0.65 to Scotiabank at 0.75 — is among the widest in the G10 consensus at this snapshot date, and it maps cleanly onto divergent assumptions about three variables: the Fed terminal rate, RBA easing depth, and Chinese commodity demand.
Scotiabank at 0.75 sits neutral on the pair despite the high target, implying the desk views that level as fair value given its macro assumptions rather than a tactical long call. UBS at 0.73 and ING at 0.73 are the most constructive among desks with explicit bullish or neutral stances, both pricing a scenario where Fed cuts accelerate in H2 2026, narrowing the US-AU real rate differential in AUD's favour.
At the other end, Citi at 0.67 is the only desk carrying an outright bearish stance at a sub-0.70 target — a combination that implies conviction in USD resilience and a deteriorating Australian terms-of-trade. Société Générale shares the 0.67 target but is listed bullish, a stance that likely reflects a near-term tactical view diverging from the year-end level — possibly pricing a dip-and-recover path rather than a straight line lower.
The cluster of four desks at exactly 0.70 — Bank of America, HSBC, MUFG, and Goldman Sachs — represents the consensus anchor. All four carry bullish stances, meaning they expect the pair to drift modestly lower from current spot to reach that target, but characterise the direction as constructive relative to their prior positioning or entry levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current AUD/USD spot rate and where does consensus sit?
Spot is 0.7048 as of August 5, 2026. The 24-firm median Dec-26 target is 0.70, placing spot 0.69% above consensus.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
Dispersion across all 24 firms is 0.10 — the range runs from 0.65 (Mizuho, most bearish) to 0.75 (Scotiabank, most bullish), one of the wider spreads in the current G10 consensus.
What is the implied bias of the consensus at current spot?
Bearish. With spot at 0.7048 and the median target at 0.70, the consensus as a whole implies modest downside from current levels by year-end 2026.
Which firm has the highest AUD/USD target and what does it imply?
Scotiabank holds the top target at 0.75, implying roughly 6.4% upside from the Dec-26 consensus median — a view that requires materially better Chinese demand data and/or a faster Fed easing cycle than the base case.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook at Scotiabank forecasts.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Uob →
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Bank of America →
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UBS →
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Tmgm →
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Rabobank →
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ING →
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Nomura →
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Societe Generale →
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Citi →
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MUFG →
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Scotiabank →
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HSBC →
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Danskebank →
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Goldman Sachs →
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