BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
MUFG | Bullish | 152.00 |
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The yen and short-end Japanese government bond yields are where the reaction will show. A clear 2% declaration, a firm Ueda and a hawkish dissent would likely support the yen, push two-year yields higher and add to December pricing. Dovish dissents calling for a cut could outweig
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4 itemsBoJ preview: MUFG sees hold but a 2% inflation call, with two dissenters the key yen risk
The desk expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its current interest rate at 1.25% during the upcoming meeting, citing a shift in rhetoric towards a declared effective 2% inflation target as a potential precursor to future rate hikes. This perspective aligns with insights from MUFG, which suggests that a firm communication from BoJ Governor Ueda may enhance support for the yen and accelerate expectations for rate increases in December [source]. Current positioning may be sensitive to dissent from two board members traditionally opposed to rate hikes, who could pose a risk to yen stability if they advocate for a cut instead. Should the BoJ maintain a cautious stance while inflation remains a concern due to external pressures such as rising oil prices, it could lead to upward pressure on short-end JGB yields and support the yen in the near term.
BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus - investingLive
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