FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the European Central Bank outlook moves the EUR bank consensus across 38 desks
View European Central Bank outlookFrom the original
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-french-risk-keeps-harming-ecb-hawks/
The desk emphasizes that French government bond spreads are under significant widening pressure due to mounting political uncertainties, which overhangs the fiscal landscape, despite a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). Per the full note from ing-think, the gap between 10-year French bonds and their German counterparts has expanded to beyond 85 basis points, signaling severe market concerns as political risks rise with upcoming elections. Current market dynamics show the EUR/USD trading at 1.1446, with consensus predicting a modest upward trend to 1.1700 by March 2026 across various firms. This cautious outlook is particularly relevant as political and economic variables increasingly intertwine, marking a potential shift in focus toward risk-averse strategies as outlined by the ECB's intentions at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.