Goldman Sachs: Rolling our EUR/USD forecasts higher - TradingView

What the desk is arguing

Goldman Sachs has raised its EUR/USD forecasts, rolling them higher across all tenors. This move signals conviction that the euro's recent resilience is more than a tactical bounce—it reflects a structural repricing of rate differentials and growth expectations.

Supporting this thesis, the revision comes just days after the ECB signaled a potentially slower easing cycle, while the Fed's data dependency has left the dollar vulnerable to softer prints. Goldman’s new Dec26 target of 1.25 is now among the most bullish on the Street.

Importantly, Goldman is implicitly rejecting the view that US exceptionalism will dominate through year-end. Instead, they see the eurozone fiscal expansion and narrowing rate spreads as the dominant drivers.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our aggregated consensus for EUR/USD Dec26 stands at 1.2200, with a firm spread from 1.1600 (Morgan Stanley) to 1.2500 (Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank). Goldman's revised 1.2500 sits at the top of that range, making it an outlier on the upside. Our own published work on the 'consensus gap' highlights that spot at 1.1500 trades well below consensus, which we view as a contrarian opportunity.

Key firm targets for Dec26 are: - Goldman Sachs: 1.2500 - Deutsche Bank: 1.2500 - MUFG: 1.2400 - Morgan Stanley: 1.1600 (bullish near-term but bearish long)

How other firms see it

Goldman Sachs is joined by Deutsche Bank (both at 1.2500 for Dec26) in the bullish camp. MUFG also leans bullish at 1.2400, while ING and BofA are moderately bullish at 1.2200. This cluster of banks expects euro strength on valuation and policy convergence.

On the contrary side, Morgan Stanley stands out with a Dec26 target of 1.1600, implying a retreat from near-term optimism. Their view likely hinges on renewed dollar strength if the Fed holds rates higher for longer. Barclays at 1.2100 and JPMorgan at 1.2000 are also comparatively cautious relative to Goldman.