ING Monthly: Weathering the shocks
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4 itemsING Monthly: Weathering the shocks
Lead — The desk views the recent adjustments made by ING as indicative of a stronger dollar outlook, extending the bullish sentiment for USD/JPY and a shift in EUR/USD forecasts. Per the full note from ING, revisions include a hawkish Fed outlook driving an increase in year-end USD/JPY targets to 160 from 158, while EUR/USD targets have been reduced to 1.16 from 1.18. This recalibration reflects the Fed's probable rotation towards a more aggressive monetary stance despite slower job creation and inflation dynamics. With the current spot at 1.1446 for EUR/USD and 161.2860 for USD/JPY, traders should remain alert to market response as these forecasts diverge from general market sentiment.
ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time
Carsten: Weathering the shocks
The desk posits that despite significant geopolitical and economic shocks this summer, the global economy appears resilient, albeit possibly mispriced. Per the full note, the emerging risk is a bond market sell-off linked to rising rates, which could weigh heavily on growth. Current leading indicators suggest continued, albeit subdued, growth ahead. With our internal targets for EUR/USD at 1.1700 by Mar-26 and USD/JPY at 155.0000, the market is largely pricing in the dislocation from current geopolitical tensions and central bank pivots. There are no high-impact calendar events ahead that may disrupt this outlook.