Iran peace deal won't derail BOJ rate hike to 31-year high on Tuesday, ex-BOJ economist
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The BOJ hiking to 1% on Tuesday would mark the highest short-term policy rate in 31 years and represents a significant JPY catalyst regardless of the Iran deal outcome. The former economist's framing, that the peace deal may reduce pressure for faster hikes but does not alter the
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US-Iran deal paves way to reopen Hormuz – BoJ hikes to 1.0% - FXStreet
BOJ hike certain, RBA and Fed on hold as Iran deal reshapes central bank outlook
BOJ March minutes says rates will be raised in line with improvements in economy, priced
The desk interprets the Bank of Japan's March minutes as indicative of a growing internal debate regarding the urgency of rate hikes, particularly in light of rising inflation risks tied to geopolitical tensions. The BOJ's 8-1 vote to maintain rates at 0.75% reflects a cautious approach, but the minutes reveal a significant concern about falling behind the curve on inflation, especially with the Iran conflict driving up oil prices. Per the full note [source], the board's discussions suggest that further rate increases are likely if economic conditions and inflation expectations evolve as anticipated. This aligns with our view that the BOJ may need to act sooner than previously expected to maintain price stability.
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