FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
See how the European Central Bank outlook moves the EUR bank consensus across 38 desks
View European Central Bank outlookFrom the original
Here are our four scenarios for the 11 June ECB meeting, alongside implications for rates and FX. We think the ECB's current priority is solidifying markets' expectations on further tightening to hedge against inflation expectations de-anchoring. Our baseline is therefore a hawki
The desk believes the ECB will opt for a cautious approach in its upcoming meeting, weighing the risks of overtightening against inflation underestimation. This cautious outlook stems from recent positive inflation data and economic growth, as outlined in the source commentary. Per the full note, a 25bp rate hike to 2.50% is anticipated, and signals of a dovish tone may surface to reassure the bond market amid instability. This aligns with our current consensus outlook, projecting the EUR/USD will sit around 1.1700 through March 2026.