EUR/USD builds on gains as bulls eye higher levels
EUR/USD has gained traction as market participants appear to favor the euro amid strengthening eurozone fundamentals and a diminishing appetite for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. This upward momentum suggests a possible shift in trader sentiment, with bulls in control as they eye higher resistance levels. The current spot at 1.1419 indicates a close alignment with recent bullish sentiment; traders will be watching for a break above critical resistance to confirm the trend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1550 (median across 10 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.2100) and MUFG at the lower (1.1800). The positioning in the market indicates that sentiment is building, with notable bullish targets stemming from several firms aligning with this positive outlook.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank are among those with higher targets, indicating bullish alignment with the headline sentiment; Goldman targets 1.1800 by March 26. In contrast, BofA remains more conservative with a lower forecast of 1.1240 for December 2026, suggesting a mixed market view. This divergent positioning reflects uncertainty among traders about potential resistance levels.
What the data shows
Recent revision from BofA, moving their March target to 1.1700, illustrates an ongoing adjustment to positive sentiment for the euro. Insights from our publication on EUR/USD consensus check (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-02) highlight the current market divergence from historical consensus targets, emphasizing shifts in trader expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current spot at 1.1419 indicates bullish momentum for EUR/USD.
- 02Traders should focus on resistance breakouts to confirm upward trend.
- 03Key resistance level just above current spot; watch for technical signals.
- 04Market estimates suggest a positive shift in eurozone fundamentals.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1450 level closely as a confirmation point; a solid breakout may pave the way for further gains. Key economic indicators from the eurozone in the coming weeks will also be crucial in shaping market sentiment and validation of the current bullish outlook. Our consensus target stands at 1.1550, suggesting room for upward movement.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal in the USD's safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions or unexpected economic data from the US could invalidate the bullish view. Additionally, a sharp change in the ECB's stance on monetary policy could recalibrate expectations, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Should the spot drop below 1.1400, traders might reassess their positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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