EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains traction above 1.1500, while remaining constrained below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD is currently gaining traction above the 1.1500 mark, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. However, it remains capped under the 100-day simple moving average, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment that could hinder its ascent. This recent interplay suggests a pivotal situation for traders, with developments monitored closely as economic data and central bank decisions approach.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1550 (median across firms), with Deutsche Bank and MUFG at the upper bound (1.2500 and 1.2600, respectively) and TMG at the lower (1.1448). [PUBLISHER] expresses a more cautious outlook, given the proximity to the 100-day SMA that could impose resistance on upward movements.
How firms align
Commerzbank features a more bullish stance with a March target of 1.1900, closely aligning with the tightening price action observed. Meanwhile, BofA remains more conservative, reflecting a tempered perspective with their March target set at 1.1700, though they slightly lowered their outlook recently — see /research/bofa.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions, particularly from ING and BofA, show a modest shift, with both edging their March targets to 1.1700. This indicates a consensus alignment with current market conditions, evidenced in our research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-02.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is testing 1.1500, capturing market interest as it approaches 1.1550 consensus.
- 02Keep an eye on the 100-day SMA, a potential resistance barrier.
- 03Recent adjustments from firms signify a cautious optimism but overall mixed sentiment.
- 04Upcoming economic data could shift perceptions significantly.
Market implications
Next, traders should watch the price action around 1.1500 for a clearer break or rejection influenced by the 100-day SMA. With our consensus target at 1.1550, fluctuations around this level may set the tone leading into key releases next week.
Risks to this view
A failure to maintain above 1.1500 could rapidly change sentiment, presenting a bearish outlook if a decisive break below the 1.1400 level occurs. The impact of any significant macroeconomic data or ECB decisions could also invalidate the current bullish narrative.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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