EUR/USD: Catching the 220 pip move lower and hitting the 2R target
The recent 220 pip drop in EUR/USD marks a significant technical breakdown, aligning with the USD's bullish sentiment and the EUR's bearish outlook per our internal analysis. Market participants are keenly watching the support level around 1.05 to determine if this downward momentum can be sustained. With consensus targets indicating a divergence between current spot rates and anticipated future levels, it’s crucial for traders to assess the potential for a continuation or reversal in this trend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1684 (median across multiple firms), with Morgan Stanley pushing the upper end at 1.2000, while Danske Bank offers a more conservative outlook at 1.1100. This positioning highlights the disparity among market views, especially against the backdrop of the recent move lower.
How firms align
Notably, firms like RBC and Nomura are positioned nearer the higher end of the spectrum, with targets for March 2026 at 1.1600 and 1.1700, respectively. This contrasts with the bearish stance evident in our latest analysis, which anticipates potential consolidation pressures in the EUR, as discussed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-21.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show BNP Paribas adjusting its EUR forecast to 1.1600 for March 2026, suggesting a more cautious stance on the euro's outlook. Insights from our publications consistently depict a gap between current pricing and the consensus, reflecting uncertainty in the market trajectory as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-19.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD has dropped significantly and is testing vital support around 1.05.
- 02Watch for signals around the 1.05 level to gauge the strength of the bearish move.
- 03A rebound from support could open the door to testing the 1.17 consensus target.
- 04The divergence between spot and forecast raises caution for traders.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the 1.05 support level as a critical juncture for potential directional bias. The upcoming economic calendar, including ECB announcements, may further influence EUR/USD's trajectory, especially given our median target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
An unexpected dovish turn from the ECB or stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone could invalidate the current bearish view, prompting a rebound towards upper resistance levels. Key data releases on inflation or employment may act as potential catalysts for a reversal.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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