EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1450, but remains technically bearish below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair maintains its position just above the 1.1450 mark, yet it remains technically bearish due to its struggle to hold above the 100-day SMA. The current spot at 1.1446 is precariously close to a breakdown point, suggesting caution for bullish traders. A decisive move below 1.1450 may signal a resumption of downward momentum, something that requires careful monitoring given the sentiment dynamics reflected in our coverage.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1684 (median across 13 firms), with Morgan Stanley positioned at the upper bound (1.2000) and Standard Chartered at the lower end (1.1400). This view suggests a divergence from the current spot price, reinforcing the notion of a potential rebound towards the consensus target.
How firms align
Several firms align with the bearish view noted in the headline. For instance, Standard Chartered's latest forecast remains cautious at 1.1400 for March 2026, while Societe Generale remains optimistic at 1.1700, reflecting a split in sentiment. These contrasting positions signify a market grappling with uncertainty.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts from BNP Paribas and Scotiabank have adjusted their March targets to 1.1600 and 1.1734, respectively, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market. Our published research from earlier this month highlights that the current spot at 1.1446 is 2.16% below our December 2026 consensus target of 1.1684 as noted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds above 1.1450, facing bearish pressure below the 100-day SMA.
- 02Traders should monitor the 1.1450 level closely as a potential breakdown point.
- 03Upcoming ECB meetings may influence sentiment and trigger volatility around current levels.
Market implications
Traders should closely watch the 1.1450 level as a breach could lead to increased selling pressure. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases or ECB policy signals could further influence the trajectory of EUR/USD toward our consensus target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish outlook could occur if EUR/USD decisively breaks above the 100-day SMA or the 1.1700 resistance level, potentially indicating a shift in market sentiment driven by stronger-than-expected economic data or ECB policy easing.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Catching the 220 pip move lower and hitting the 2R target
Technical breakdown in EUR/USD confirms downside momentum; watch for support hold near 1.05 to assess whether move has legs.
Euro declines as US Dollar recovers recent losses amid hawkish Fed tone
Fed hawkish signals support USD recovery; EUR/USD correction likely continues absent ECB policy divergence clarification.
Euro: Fair value drop points to downside against US Dollar – ING
ING's fair value reassessment signals structural EUR/USD weakness; re-anchor portfolio hedges and monitor 1.05–1.08 pivot zones.
Euro: Downtrend eyes 1.1400 support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend targeting 1.1400 suggests technical breakdown risk that could extend if US data remains supportive or ECB signals additional easing.
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD at 1.1432 Sits 2.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus of 1.1684
EUR/USD spot at 1.1432 trails the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1684 by 2.16%, with a 0.14 dispersion range signalling material disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1468, Median Target 1.1684 — Week of September 21, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 1.85% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, with a 0.14 dispersion range signalling material disagreement on the Fed-ECB endgame.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1486, Median Target 1.1684 — Week of September 19, 2026
EUR/USD trades 1.69% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, with a 0.14 range separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 floor.