Morning briefing: EUR/USD can test 1.1300
The EUR/USD is poised to test the 1.1300 mark as it currently trades at 1.1384, reflecting ongoing market dynamics and positioning. The recent consensus among analysts suggests a potential upside trajectory given forecasts from various firms showing targets primarily in the 1.1600 to 1.2000 range by March 2026. This aligns with the narrative that the euro could regain strength as market sentiment shifts. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators as we approach those levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1100). fxstreet.com's projection for EUR/USD testing 1.1300 aligns with the potential for further appreciation, given our consensus sentiment.
How firms align
Several firms, including SocGen and BofA, support the bullish outlook, both targeting 1.1700 by March 2026, indicating confidence in the euro’s strength. Meanwhile, others like RBC see an ascent to 1.2000 within the same timeframe, reflecting a favorable sentiment towards the euro against the USD. For further details, refer to our research on the latest firm targets.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from BofA and ANZ suggest bullish trends with targets rising towards 1.1700. Our published insights, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-24, further highlight the divergence between consensus and current spot, indicating a potential gap worth noting.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD spot is 1.1384, testing 1.1300 could indicate deeper bullish momentum.
- 02Watch market reactions to economic data as traders position for potential rallies.
- 03Key resistance level at 1.1400 is pivotal; a break could lead to further gains.
- 04ECB monetary policy updates will be crucial for future EUR strength.
Market implications
Traders should watch the 1.1400 level closely; a move above could trigger further buying interest towards our consensus target of 1.1700. Upcoming economic data releases will influence positioning.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data release, particularly if it leads to a shift in Fed policy, could invalidate the bullish outlook for the euro against the dollar, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.1300.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break near 1.1350
Euro: Decline nears support zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD approaching technical support level signals potential capitulation point for mean-reversion trades or break-of-support acceleration.
Euro: Downside risks for EUR against US Dollar – Rabobank
Rabobank identifies structural downside risks to EUR/USD; USD strength thesis warrants position review for long-EUR portfolios.