EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers challenge 100-day SMA as momentum turns bullish
The EUR/USD pair has reached a critical juncture as buyers are testing the 100-day SMA, signaling a shift towards bullish momentum. This price action comes amid a broader consensus indicating a target of 1.1583 for December 2026, suggesting that sentiment could continue to strengthen if current momentum is maintained. As market participants assess the euro's potential against the USD, the interplay between economic data releases and central bank policies will be key to determining the sustainability of this rally.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1583 (median across a broad firm consensus), with Commerzbank at the upper range target of 1.2200 and TMGM at the lower end at 1.1448. This positioning indicates a degree of optimism among analysts, particularly as buyers push through significant technical resistance levels.
How firms align
Firms like Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank are aligned with the bullish outlook, targeting 1.1900 and 1.1800 respectively by March 2026. In contrast, TMGM and Danske Bank offer more conservative projections, with both expecting marginal gains, at 1.1447 and 1.1866 respectively. More insights can be found in our report on EUR/USD dynamics, related to the ECB's rate path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from multiple firms indicate a shift upwardly in expectations; for instance, BofA revised their March 2026 projections to 1.1700. This momentum appears consistent with our prior insights — detailed in our research from August 6, 2026, which indicated a spot price at 1.1551 against the consensus target.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD buyers are testing the 100-day SMA, indicating bullish momentum.
- 02Watch for resistance breakouts; confirmation above current levels may fuel buying.
- 03A strong data release from the Eurozone could push the pair towards the 1.18 target.
- 04The ECB's upcoming meeting will be critical in shaping further expectations.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the 1.1500 level, which could act as a support if the bullish momentum continues. Additionally, the consensus target of 1.1583 becomes increasingly relevant as we approach key economic calendar events from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if the ECB's policy signals lean towards caution, particularly if inflation data suggests a slowing economy. Such signals could reinvigorate USD strength, affecting the bullish outlook for EUR/USD.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Recovery stalls near 1.1550 resistance against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD rejection at 1.1550 suggests sellers remain active; watch for fresh lows if support breaks.
Euro: Upside bias needs close above resistance against US Dollar – UOB
Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to test 1.1600
EUR/USD technical setup suggests upside momentum toward 1.1600 resistance, implying near-term USD weakness in the pair.