Euro: Upside bias targets 1.1590 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro is currently exhibiting an upside bias with notable targeting towards 1.1590 against the US Dollar, as highlighted by UOB. This follows a consensus view that positions the Euro well above current levels, with a median target of 1.1700 across various firms. The bullish sentiment is relevant now, particularly in light of recent ECB communications and potential shifts in US monetary policy, which could influence relative strength between the currencies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1200). UOB's outlook aligns closely with the expectations of firms such as JPMorgan and ING, which also reflect similar bullish sentiments towards the Euro against the Dollar.
How firms align
Firms like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are aligned with the bullish perspective, projecting targets of 1.2000 and 1.1800 for March 2026, respectively. However, firms like MUFG and BofA express a more cautious approach, with targets of 1.1800 and 1.1700 respectively, which is less optimistic compared to the headline figure of 1.1590 suggested by UOB.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions include JPMorgan's upward adjustment to 1.1800 for March 2026, reinforcing the prevailing bullish view. Related insights can be found in our published research, particularly the consensus checks from the past week, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-16, which detail similar bullish positioning.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01UOB targets EUR/USD at 1.1590, reflecting ongoing bullish sentiment.
- 02Market is positioned for a stronger Euro as ECB policies unfold.
- 03Watch March 2026 targets—1.1700 is the median consensus across firms.
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should monitor key level resistance around 1.1600 and any upcoming ECB communications that could impact the Euro. The current consensus target of 1.1700 provides a benchmark against which traders can gauge potential upside movements in the pair.
Risks to this view
A shift in the US Fed's policy stance or unexpected macroeconomic data could lead to a rapid shift in sentiment, undermining the bullish Euro view. Should USD strength increase significantly, particularly backed by positive employment data, the current targets could face downward pressure.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro returns below 1.1600 as US Dollar selling pressure eases
Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD bullish momentum targeting 1.17 mid-levels suggests positioning for further dollar weakness if technical breaks hold.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
EUR/USD technical break above 1.1600 and 100-SMA signals continuation risk; monitor for resistance targets above current levels.