EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades below 1.1400, near two-month low ahead of Trump-Xi summit
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading below the 1.1400 mark, approaching a two-month low as anticipation builds ahead of the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi. This creates a precarious environment for the euro, especially as the currency faces downward pressure amidst uncertainties in global economic negotiations. Market participants are closely watching how geopolitical dynamics might influence central bank policies and, subsequently, currency valuations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1684, with projections ranging from a bearish 1.1100 (Danske Bank) to a bullish 1.2300 (Morgan Stanley). These divergent views highlight the uncertainty in market sentiment around the euro's trajectory as it struggles below 1.1400.
How firms align
Several firms, such as SocGen and Nomura, see the euro recovering towards forecasts of 1.1700 and 1.1800 by the end of March 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook than the current trading levels. Conversely, firms like Standard Chartered remain cautious, suggesting a target of 1.1400 for March 2026, which aligns with the bearish sentiment ahead of critical events.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments from BNP Paribas also indicate a more conservative stance, with targets set at 1.1600 for March and 1.2100 for December 2026, suggesting a reevaluation of the euro's potential strength. Further insights can be found in our publication, /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-23, which critically examines the divergence between consensus projections and spot rates.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is under pressure, trading near 1.1400.
- 02Geopolitical uncertainty ahead of the Trump-Xi summit could drive volatility.
- 03Focus on firm projections: SocGen and Nomura project upward movement; Standard Chartered remains cautious with 1.1400.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1400 resistance level, as breaking below this could signal further downside. Upcoming economic data releases and the Trump-Xi summit outcomes will be critical in shaping sentiment and positioning leading into month-end.
Risks to this view
A significant escalation in trade tensions or unfavorable economic data from either the US or Eurozone could dramatically alter the outlook for EUR/USD, potentially leading to a downward revision of forecasts.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Euro: Downside bias toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – UOB
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Euro: PMI strength limits downside against US Dollar – BBH
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