Euro: PMI strength limits downside against US Dollar – BBH
The Euro's recent performance against the US Dollar is buoyed by robust PMI data from the Eurozone, which offers a buffer against further dollar gains. This momentum is noteworthy amid a mixed macro landscape where the USD remains neutral. The strength in the Eurozone's economic indicators signals underlying resilience, which could be pivotal for traders seeking key levels in EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1684, with a notable spread among firms ranging from 1.1200 (Danske Bank) to 1.2000 (Morgan Stanley). This positioning suggests that while there's a range of expectations, many firms anticipate a gradual strengthening of the Euro against the Dollar.
How firms align
Several firms reflect a bullish outlook aligning with the headline, particularly Societe Generale with a Mar26 target of 1.1700 and RBC at 1.1600 for the same tenor. In contrast, Danske Bank's forecast of 1.1866 suggests a stronger Euro through the end of March, diverging slightly from the broader consensus. This nuanced expectation is detailed in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have shown a slight uptick in targets, notably from BNP Paribas who increased their Mar26 forecast to 1.1600, reinforcing the optimistic sentiment. Additionally, our recent analysis highlights the strong support at current levels relative to the consensus, with ongoing revisions suggesting a potential upward trend; see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-21 for more insights.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD strength supported by Eurozone's PMI data, spot at 1.1446.
- 02Traders should monitor Euro resilience against USD macro trends.
- 03Potential upside risks if Eurozone data continues to outperform, targeting above 1.1700.
Market implications
Next on the radar is the upcoming Eurozone economic release, which may provide further strength for the Euro if PMI data continues to beat expectations. Consensus at 1.1684 could be tested if bullish sentiment persists amidst upcoming data.
Risks to this view
A reversal could materialize if US economic indicators show significant improvement or if the Federal Reserve signals a more aggressive tightening path. This could pressure the Euro back towards more neutral levels.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: De-escalation risk weighs on EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Peace negotiations or geopolitical de-escalation would reduce safe-haven demand and remove structural EUR support, pressuring EUR/USD toward lower levels.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh low since July 29, around 1.1425 as USD stays firm
EUR/USD at 3-week lows signals sustained USD bid; monitor for break below 1.1420 technical support.
Morning briefing: EUR/USD faces downward pressure toward 1.1400
EUR/USD technical breakdown below intermediate support levels suggests USD strength is testing structural resistance; watch for break below 1.1400 as potential confirmation of deeper downtrend.