EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Bears remain in control with 1.1450 support eyed
The EUR/USD downtrend is markedly persisting, with the spot currently hovering at 1.1446 and the bears firmly in control. Market sentiment, evaluated at 0.65, indicates a bullish outlook for the USD and bearish for the EUR, reinforcing expectations that the 1.1450 support may soon be tested. Should this level break, further weakness could materialize, aligning with a bearish macro sentiment surrounding the Euro amid ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1684 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1100). FXStreet's analysis aligns with the bearish sentiment highlighted by our consensus, as the focus remains on the critical 1.1450 support level.
How firms align
TSGM, HSBC, and Standard Chartered all produce targets around the 1.14 mark for March 2026, reflecting a somewhat cautious positioning in line with this bearish view. For instance, TSGM forecasts EUR/USD at 1.1447, which is nearly at the market's current spot level. This viewpoint contrasts with more bullish positions from firms like RBC and Morgan Stanley, who anticipate prices pushing closer to 1.1700 and 1.2000, respectively.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions, including those from BNP Paribas and Scotiabank, indicate a reassessment of previous targets, now forecasting lower outcomes for March 2026, further supporting the bearish thesis. Our research piece, /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, elaborates on the existing divergence between the current spot and the consensus median, suggesting further downside risks for the EUR.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains under pressure, with 1.1450 as a key support level.
- 02Market sentiment heavily favors USD over EUR, maintaining a bearish outlook.
- 03A break below the 1.1450 level could trigger further downside moves.
- 04Watch the EUR's performance around US economic indicators for volatility.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1450 support level as a potential turning point; a decisive break below could lead to increased selling pressure. Upcoming U.S. economic data releases may provide further insight into dollar strength, potentially influencing our consensus target of 1.1684.
Risks to this view
The bearish outlook would be invalidated if economic data signals a robust recovery in the Eurozone, prompting a reassessment of the Euro's valuation. A rally above 1.1700 could disrupt the current bearish sentiment and signal renewed buyer interest.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Euro declines as US Dollar recovers recent losses amid hawkish Fed tone
Fed hawkish signals support USD recovery; EUR/USD correction likely continues absent ECB policy divergence clarification.
Euro: Fair value drop points to downside against US Dollar – ING
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