EUR/USD: Range persists as Dollar outperforms – Societe Generale
The EUR/USD pair remains confined within a trading range as the dollar's recent strength continues to position it favorably against the euro. Societe Generale's assessment of a fair value near 1.1150, coupled with a year-end target of 1.10, indicates a bearish sentiment towards the euro as ongoing economic resilience in the US supports the dollar. While the pair trades above this range currently at 1.1373, the prevailing economic indicators suggest a potential for further downside for EUR/USD, reinforcing the outlook shared by SocGen.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.14 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank projecting the highest target at 1.2200 for December 2026, while Lloyds remains at the lower end with 1.1200. This diverges from Societe Generale's outlook, which suggests a stronger likelihood of a decline toward 1.10 by year-end.
How firms align
Firms like RBC and ANZ are in line with broader bullish expectations, with targets at 1.1600 and 1.1609, respectively for March 2026, suggesting a relatively bullish outlook compared to SocGen's more bearish stance with a target of 1.10. Meanwhile, Mizuho takes a more conservative approach with a target of 1.1300 for March 2026, which also leans toward the lower end of the spectrum.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a marginal downward adjustment with Mizuho lowering its March target to 1.1300 while Scotiabank and Rabobank have positioned their targets above consensus at 1.1734 and 1.1759, respectively. Our earlier reports outline a discrepancy as EUR/USD is currently trading significantly above consensus levels, further emphasizing the divergence within the market as seen in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path coverage.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD stuck in range; latest fair value around 1.1150.
- 02US economic strength supports dollar; expect potential downward adjustments.
- 03Watch for divergence as recent forecasts vary widely among firms.
- 04Consensus target indicates a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish stances.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.10 resistance level as a potential target for year-end, which aligns with Societe Generale's forecast. Upcoming US economic releases will be crucial for re-evaluating dollar strength and could impact EUR/USD positioning.
Risks to this view
A surprising shift in US economic data or a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve could redefine expectations, pushing EUR/USD higher and invalidating the bearish outlook, particularly if key inflation metrics weaken significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh downside below 1.1100
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